Violence may have dropped sharply from the peak of sectarian carnage two years ago, but political squabbling that has delayed the formation of a new government has emboldened militants.
Sunni and Shi'ite insurgents are reviving the tactic of firing rockets at Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, unsettling the Iraqi capital's residents and adding to a sense that security is eroding as US troops withdraw.
Violence may have dropped sharply from the peak of sectarian carnage two years ago, but political squabbling that has delayed the formation of a new government has emboldened militants.
The US military says rocket attacks against the Green Zone, home to the Iraqi government and foreign embassies, spiked in September. The military blames both Iranian-backed Shi'ite groups and Sunni Islamist al Qaeda for the violence.
"Over the last four to six weeks, we've seen a spike of indirect fire," said Brigadier General Ralph Baker, commander of US troops in central Iraq, using the military term for rocket or mortar attacks.
"It's a difficult technique to defeat," he said, adding that the military believed levels of violence would decline once Iraqi politicians agreed on forming a new government.
Firing positions seem to be encroaching on the Green Zone from both Sunni and Shi'ite areas, triggering concerns about the ability of the Iraqi army to stamp out insurgents now that US combat operations have formally ended in the country.
"They have changed their tactics and started launching attacks from a very close range to be sure that there is no time to warn people inside the Green Zone," a source in the Iraqi defence ministry told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Bombs and drive-by shootings still claim more lives, but the surge in rocket strikes is an unsettling echo of the war's darkest days, when militants controlled swathes of the city and were able to fire rockets and mortars with impunity.
Back then, US troops would respond by hunting firing teams with helicopter missile strikes and putting neighbourhoods under siege. Now, Iraqi authorities say fear of hitting civilians has so far curbed their military response.
"We have been able to spot and arrest some perpetrators and seize launchers," said Major General Qassim al-Moussawi, a Baghdad security spokesman. "We are planning to hit back directly, but we have concerns about the lives of civilians."
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