What results to watch as UK election goes down to the wire?

Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party will fail to win a parliamentary majority in Britain's election, according to an exit poll, a shock result that would plunge domestic politics into turmoil and could delay Brexit talks. Below is a list of the 100 most marginal seats from 2015, ranked from smallest vote margin to largest, with the percentage swing needed for the second place party to take the seat off of the incumbent. It also includes estimates of how each seat voted in last year's EU referendum. Constituency 2017 winner 2015 2015 margin pct winner 2nd swing place needed Gower Con Lab 27 0.03 Derby North Con Lab 41 0.05 City of Chester Lab Con 93 0.09 Croydon Central Con Lab 165 0.16 Ynys Mon Lab PC 229 0.33 Vale of Clwyd LABOUR GAIN Con Lab 237 0.34 Ealing Central LABOUR HOLD Lab Con 274 0.27 and Acton Berwickshire, SNP Con 328 0.30 Roxburgh and Selkirk Bury North Con Lab 378 0.42 Wirral West Lab Con 417 0.50 Morley and Con Lab 422 0.44 Outwood Co-op Halifax Lab Con 428 0.49 Brentford and Lab Con 465 0.41 Isleworth Plymouth, Con Lab 523 0.55 Sutton and Co-op Devonport Fermanagh and UUP SF 530 0.52 South Tyrone Thurrock Con Lab 536 0.54 Ilford North Lab Con 589 0.60 Cambridge Lab LD 599 0.58 Newcastle-under Lab Con 650 0.76 -Lyme Brighton, Con Lab 690 0.76 Kemptown Telford Con Lab 730 0.90 Eastbourne Con LD 733 0.69 Barrow and Lab Con 795 0.92 Furness Co-op Dumfriesshire, Con SNP 798 0.77 Clydesdale and Tweeddale Wolverhampton Lab Con 801 1.00 South West Bolton West Con Lab 801 0.82 Weaver Vale Con Lab 806 0.86 Orkney and LD SNP 817 1.80 Shetland Belfast South SDLP DUP 906 1.16 South Antrim UUP DUP 949 1.30 Plymouth, Moor Con Lab 1026 1.20 View Lewes Con LD 1083 1.07 Enfield North Lab Con 1086 1.18 Bedford Con Lab 1097 1.19 Hampstead and Lab Con 1138 1.05 Kilburn Hove Lab Con 1236 1.18 Lancaster and Lab Con 1265 1.52 Fleetwood Southport LD Con 1322 1.50 Lincoln Con Lab 1443 1.54 Dewsbury Lab Con 1451 1.35 Thornbury and Con LD 1495 1.54 Yate Carshalton and LD Con 1510 1.59 Wallington Wrexham LABOUR HOLD Lab Con 1831 2.80 North East Lab Con 1883 1.96 Derbyshire Peterborough Con Lab 1925 2.04 Bridgend Lab Con 1927 2.44 Walsall North Lab Con 1937 2.63 Westminster Lab Con 1977 2.50 North Twickenham Con LD 2017 1.63 Cardiff North Con Lab 2137 2.09 East Dunbarts SNP LD 2167 1.97 Harrow West Lab Con 2208 2.37 Co-op Upper Bann DUP UUP 2264 2.40 Middlesbrough Lab Con 2268 2.48 South and East Cleveland Southampton, Con Lab 2316 2.59 Itchen Co-op Sheffield, LD Lab 2353 2.12 Hallam Clwyd South Lab Con 2402 3.43 Waveney Con Lab 2408 2.31 Corby Con Lab 2412 2.15 Co-op St Ives Con LD 2469 2.56 Birmingham, Lab Con 2509 2.95 Northfield Stoke-on-Trent Lab Con 2539 3.25 South Copeland Lab Con 2564 3.23 Blackpool South Lab Con 2585 3.98 Belfast East DUP Allia 2597 3.27 nce Wakefield Lab Con 2613 3.04 Edinburgh South Lab SNP 2637 2.68 Eltham Lab Con 2693 3.12 Birmingham, Lab Con 2706 3.28 Edgbaston Warrington Con Lab 2750 2.32 South Carlisle CON HOLD Con Lab 2774 3.26 South Thanet Con UKIP 2812 2.85 Kingston and Con LD 2834 2.39 Surbiton Tooting Lab Con 2842 2.65 Leeds North LD Lab 2907 3.35 West Delyn Lab Con 2930 3.91 North Con Lab 2973 3.14 Warwickshire Gedling Lab Con 2986 3.11 Hartlepool Lab UKIP 3024 3.83 Keighley Con Lab 3053 3.11 Ceredigion LD PC 3067 4.10 Halesowen and Con Lab 3082 3.52 Rowley Regis Scunthorpe Lab Con 3134 4.24 Darlington LABOUR HOLD Lab Con 3158 3.84 Coventry South Lab Con 3188 3.65 Edinburgh West SNP LD 3210 2.93 Burnley Lab LD 3244 4.08 Northampton Con Lab 3245 4.12 North Torbay Con LD 3286 3.42 Blackpool North Con Lab 3340 4.24 and Cleveleys Alyn and Lab Con 3343 4.05 Deeside Clacton UKIP Con 3437 3.89 Bishop Auckland Lab Con 3508 4.45 Newport West Lab Con 3510 4.35 Erewash Con Lab 3584 3.71 Crewe and Con Lab 3620 3.63 Nantwich Arfon PC Lab 3668 6.83 East SNP Lab 3718 3.28 Renfrewshire Hendon Con Lab 3724 3.75 Ipswich Con Lab 3733 3.83 Below are some key developments so far: VALE OF CLWYD LABOUR GAIN The first Labour gain of the night. Some polls had showed the Conservatives doing well in Wales, where most people voted to leave the European Union. But Labour overturned a thin 237 vote margin, increasing its vote by around 12 percentage points NUNEATON CONSERVATIVE HOLD Considered a national bellwether seat, holding Nuneaton gave May's Conservatives a boost. They increased their majority here in 2015, despite it being a Labour target, and it provided one of the first indications the Conservatives were on course for victory. However, Labour also increased their share of the vote in the seat, as support for the anti-European Union party UKIP collapsed. DARLINGTON LABOUR HOLD This was a key Conservative target seat, which voted in favor of leaving the EU. But Labour held the seat, with both parties increasing their share of the vote by about 8 percentage points. SWINDON SOUTH CONSERVATIVE HOLD Swindon South is held by the Conservatives, but a 6 percent swing would see it switch to Labour and could indicate that the Conservatives are at risk of losing their majority. BATTERSEA LABOUR GAIN British junior finance minister Jane Ellison was defending a 15 percentage point lead in Battersea in London, but the strongly pro-Remain seat voted Labour, according to ITV. Still to come: NORTHAMPTON NORTH, RESULT EXPECTED 0100 GMT This seat has elected a lawmaker from the winning party at every British national election since it was created in 1974. It is held by the Conservatives with a majority of 3,245. UKIP, which won more than 6,000 votes here in 2015, are not fielding a candidate so it should be a comfortable win for the Conservatives if they are to increase their national majority. BURY NORTH, RESULT EXPECTED 0200 GMT This is a Conservative-held marginal seat, with a majority of just 378 voters. It has been a bellwether seat so if the Conservatives lose it, despite facing no UKIP candidate, it could be a sign they are at risk of losing their majority. Below is a table of the 100 most marginal seats, ranked by smallest margin of votes and including estimates of how the constiuency voted in 2016's European Union referendum. HASTINGS AND RYE, RESULT EXPECTED 0200 GMT ITV REPORT THAT THERE IS A RECOUNT AS TOO CLOSE TO CALL This is the seat of interior minister Amber Rudd, who has played a prominent role in the election campaign and is tipped as a possible successor to Chancellor Philip Hammond. She has held it since 2010, and won a majority of 4,796 in 2015. The Green Party, which won just under 2,000 votes there in 2015, has agreed not to field a candidate in a bid to help Labour try and unseat Rudd. Pollster YouGov's election model has predicted they could succeed in doing so. BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN, RESULT EXPECTED 0400 GMT This marginal seat is held by the Conservative minister responsible for financial services, Simon Kirby, with a majority of just 690. It voted strongly in favor of remaining in the EU. It has been a bellwether at national elections since 1979 and the Green Party, who won more than 3,000 votes here in 2015, are not standing. Labour need to win seats like this if they are to have any chance of being the largest party nationally. HALIFAX, RESULT EXPECTED 0430 GMT This is one of Labour's most marginal seats, with a majority of just 428. It voted in favor of Brexit. May's Conservatives launched their election policy document here and need to win seats like this if she is to hang on to her majority.

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