The UK's Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and African populations are forecast to increase by between 90 and 120% over the next three decades.
Britain's ethnic minority population is set to double by 2051 largely due to a baby boom among people of Pakistani, Bangladeshi and African origin, according to a new report. A research by Leeds University, commissioned by the UK government, estimates that the overall UK population will rise from 63.4 million in 2011 to 77.4 million in 2051, fuelled by a more than 100 % increase in minority ethnic numbers. The UK's Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and African populations are forecast to increase by between 90 and 120 % over the next three decades.
However, as people age, the growth rate is likely to slow, the research suggests. The projected surge in the non-white population will be driven by fertility rates among the UK's youthful ethnic-minority communities, largely from Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds.
"Even if you shut the borders? which is impossible under international law? the minority ethnic groups, with the possible exception of the Chinese, would continue to grow because of their age structures? [which] are concentrated in the reproductive years," explained Philip Rees, emeritus professor of population geography at Leeds University who worked on the figures.
They were prepared for a Government Office of Science report looking at the challenges facing UK cities over the next 50 years. The office, which is based in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, produces reports to provide policymakers with strategic long-term options.
David Coleman, professor of demography at the University of Oxford, told The Times: "Many of the consequences of large-scale migration are damaging. We do not need up to 13 million more people by the mid-century. Almost all that increase will be immigrants and their children. It will not make the UK a happier or richer place".
"Crowding and congestion will have entirely negative effects, increasing pressure on schools, hospitals and particularly housing," he added. By 2051, minority ethnic communities will comprise 24.3 % of the population compared with 12.8 at the 2011 census while the proportion of whites will be 75.7 %, down from 87.2 % at the census. Almost one in four Britons (24 %) will be from black and minority ethnic groups.
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