MS Dhoni got it wrong: India must reinvent their ODI batting to win in the modern era

India on Sunday lost another ODI series, capping off a dismal 10 months in the limited overs format after the 2015 World Cup.

After the loss, a dejected captain Dhoni blamed the wayward bowling. "If you take the deep fine leg slightly wider and that's one area where you don't want to get hit for a boundary. And that's where off the two next balls, back-to-back boundaries are hit. It's a bit disappointing because the bowlers have played a lot of games, and you want to avoid that kind of a boundary. At times it feels like I can only try to bring in more pressure by making field changes, but it's all about execution," he said in response to a question.

But the team does not look likely to win any of the remaining two games either, and this will mean they lose their No 2 ODI ranking. However, this is the least of India's problems at the moment.

Bowling - especially the fast bowling - is definitely one of them. Team India have been lacking bowlers who can bowl with a fair degree of consistent accuracy and poise for a long time now. The last accomplished bowler who did so was Zaheer Khan. Ishant Sharma, despite his experience, and Umesh Yadav do not inspire any confidence in this regard. Bhuvneshwar Kumar is a shade better but he has a long way to go too.

But bowling has always been India's weak link, since the days of yore. More worrisome in the short term is the batting.

Yes, the batting. The line-up which has been scoring in excess of 290 repeatedly since the last 12 months or so is a big concern.

The deficiency can simply be explained like this: A score of 300 no longer means what it used to in the old days. 300 is common fare, it's as mundane as the 250 of ten years ago. Over the past three years or so, ODI batting has changed dramatically.

India have consistently scored upwards of 290 during this period, but that's simply not saying much in the rapidly changing game of ODI cricket any more. Since 2012, India themselves have chased down targets in excess of 330 thrice (including over 350 twice), and 321 in 36.4 overs once.

But India's batsmen now seem unable to keep pace with the ever-increasing pace of run scoring the in 50-over game. The first real signs of this appeared at the last World Cup. It is not too far off the mark to say that the bowlers had a big part to play in the team defending totals of just about 300 thrice at the mega event. This included 300 against Pakistan, 307 against South Africa and 302 against Bangladesh. In the league game against Zimbabwe, India took 48.4 overs to chase down 287. 

Contrast this with the batting performance of other sides - or rather their big-hitting ability. South Africa made 339 against Zimbabwe and 408 against West Indies. Then they made 411 against Ireland and 341 against UAE. They also lost all 10 wickets in a frenetic run chase against Pakistan, smashing 202 in 33 overs.

Australia made 342 against England, 417 against Afghanistan, 376 against Sri Lanka, 216 in 34 overs against Pakistan, and finally 328 against an in-form Indian bowling attack.

New Zealand hit 331 against Sri Lanka, 125 in 12 overs against England, 393 against West Indies, and chased down 298 in 42.5 overs against South Africa in the semifinal.

There were other big scores, but these many are enough to make the assessment that India's finishing has become an issue. 

If more evidence is to be provided, it can be said that the last 15 overs of the ODI innings during the World Cup saw some incredible additions to the aggregate. For example, South Africa scored 222 runs in the final 15 against the West Indies. The average run rate in the last 10 overs for all teams in the 2015 World Cup was 10, whereas it had remained at around 7 for the three World Cups prior.

Contrast this with India's run rate in the last ten. 83 runs against Pakistan (8.3) - including 27 in the last five. 80 against South Africa (37 in the last five). They did manage 97 in the last 10 against Bangladesh, but they were just 3 down at the end of 40 overs. Moreover, the team had realised its deficiency in the final ten and was actually working to resolve it at that point.

This was the state of affairs even before the new ODI rules were introduced. The old rules allowed four fielders outside the circle in the final ten. Now the number has been increased to five. There is no powerplay apart from the mandatory one anymore, only a set of unique field restrictions after the first ten overs.

Thus India's batting problems in the last 10 overs persisted before the rule allowing a fifth fielder outside the circle was introduced. Therefore, it may not be wise to blame the new ODI rules.

The problem continued after the rules were changed, with similar outcomes in the ODI series against South Africa.  

The problem has reared its head very significantly in this Australia series, with India making 75, 93 and 87 runs in these overs in the three games. 93 and 87 are not poor finishes, but given that India had never lost more than 3 wickets on any occasion, they are sub-par. Against a side with the lower-order attacking strength of Australia, they are woefully inadequate.

What are the causes of this problem? The most obvious one seems to be that India now lacks a genuine middle or lower middle order big-hitter. Those spots were once occupied by Yuvraj Singh, MS Dhoni and Suresh Raina. We still have MS Dhoni but he is no longer the audacious, fearsome batsman he once was. He showed glimpses of it in the 3rd ODI, but finished all too quickly, being out for 23.

Raina's axing is significant because he had almost assumed the mantle of India's big-hitter over the last few years. He however, has a slightly different problem - he still cannot handle the short ball well enough. 

Virat Kohli is capable of batting in a hell-for-leather fashion, but he is too valuable at No 3 now and has made the position his own. Ajinkya Rahane is the new Mr Dependable but just like Rahul Dravid, he is no big-hitting champion. Manish Pandey is still taking his first steps in the game while Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan are openers.

Unless India can fill this gaping hole by finding a pure end-overs specialist, the problem will persist.

But poor scoring rates in the final 10 is not the only concern India's batting faces today. With the new ODI rules, there is a difference between overs 31 to 40 and 41 to 50 - there are less fielders outside the circle in the former period.

In effect, overs 31 to 40 have (or should) become the new 41 to 50. It is here that India must try to maximise their run-scoring. In the 3 ODIs against Australia so far, India made 67, 67 and 60 runs in this period - despite having most of their wickets in hand. 

There is a new adage that for teams batting first, the score now doubles after 35 overs. So while Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and Ajinkya Rahane are all in great form and scoring runs aplenty, they must shift into aggressive mode after Over 30. A 97-ball 91, a 163-ball 171 and an 80-ball 89 just aren't quick enough in this era.

India's third batting-related problem begins at the top of the order itself. Shikhar Dhawan's poor form has led to some slow batting on his part, and if he is out early, some less-than-aggressive batting from the ones to follow. Since Rohit Sharma is a slow starter, India's scoring rate in the first 10 overs or so has also become something of a problem. India's scores at the end of 10 overs for the first three games have been 52/1, 47/1 and 43/1. Against South Africa back in India, the scores for this period were 59/1, 44/1, 42/1, 43/2 and 51/2 (chasing 439). 

These scores are not desperately low, but they are very average in this new era of ODI cricket. If your team's scoring ability in the last 15 is a matter of concern, you must surely be more aggressive in the first ten. But India are now deficient in both periods.

So while the state of India's bowling may be a long-term cause for concern, it is the batting which must pull up its socks, and quickly. Long partnerships and memorable centuries are not sufficient to set up challenging totals anymore - or to chase big ones successfully. An appetite for regularly clearing the fence has never been more important.

The remaining two ODIs will give India a chance to test their bench strength. They must look to address the run-rate problem during this period, not merely shore up efforts to bowl more accurately. India's batting has always been their strength, just as bowling has been their weakness. But in this age, when even 400 has become an achievable first innings score, India must either reassess the fundamentals of their batting style or risk long-term damage to their cricket.