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A mad, mad political whirl

The excitement of a forthcoming election was missing as the curtain rang down on the final session of the 14th Lok Sabha.

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The excitement of a forthcoming election was missing as the curtain rang down on the final session of the 14th Lok Sabha. Few MPs seemed to be enthused by the prospect of facing yet another poll in the dead heat of an Indian summer.

More so because the upcoming battle will probably be the toughest so far, with an outcome that has never looked so uncertain. Behind the public posturing and tall claims, the political class is bracing itself for badly fractured verdict, a hung Parliament to beat all previous hung parliaments. This was the buzz across the political spectrum last week. Privately, MPs of all hues admitted that they foresee a period of instability ahead.

They talked of a kichdi government and a mid-term poll in two years. There were few takers for the middle class dream of bipolarity, UPA versus NDA. Not while regional parties sprout like wild mushrooms among an electorate thoroughly disillusioned by the two national parties.

Interestingly, no-one expects either of the two known formations, UPA and NDA, to survive in the post-election scenario. All political parties are bracing themselves for a large-scale realignment in the scramble to form the next government. Consequently, everyone is talking to everyone, except perhaps the Congress to the BJP since both are claimants to lead the new ruling coalition. It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad political whirl. How’s this for starters? The Congress is in touch with BJP allies JD(U) in Bihar and BJD in Orissa. Congress ally NCP is in touch with BJP ally Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. The Congress has made contact with Left ally AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and JD(S) in Karnataka. The cherry on the pudding is that the Left and the Congress are once again talking to each other to kiss and make up if the situation so demands after the elections! As one MP confessed in a dark moment, it’s all about power, not issues or ideology.

The near absence of talking points makes it a tough battle. Since there’s no slogan to ride on, each candidate has to get his/her caste and community arithmetic right to win. Talk to any MP about his constituency and he will reel off exact statistics giving the demographic breakup, right down to the smallest caste. 

Although the political class widely believes that the next prime minister will be from one of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties, it is hedging its bets on who will win the crown. It could one of those in the forefront of speculation like BSP chief Mayawati, NCP boss Sharad Pawar and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. Or it could be a dark horse like Deve Gowda, who emerged from nowhere when the United Front cobbled together a shortlived government in 1996. Then again, the electorate could surprise political parties and vote in a most unlikely combination, proving once again that politicians are no longer masters of their fate.

TAILPIECE
As political leaders filed into his chambers to bid him farewell on the last day of the final session of the 14th Lok Sabha, outgoing Speaker Somnath Chatterjee could barely contain his emotions. He had something to say to everyone who came but he reserved a special pat for Rahul Gandhi. ``We expect great things from you,’’ he told the youthful leader who is the face of the future Congress.
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