Zardari takes Pak establishment by surprise

ISLAMABAD: Asif Ali Zardari's promise of a "no-first use" of nuclear weapons against India has taken the establishment here by surprise, with analysts and politicians saying the "un-informed" Pakistan President may have made the bold remarks "off-the-cuff".
    
Zardari stunned the Pakistani political and military establishment on Saturday when he announced that Islamabad would "most definitely" not be the first to use atomic weapons in a possible conflict, addressing the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit via video-conference in New Delhi.
    
However, strategic experts and politicians in Pakistan said that Zardari will face difficulties in delivering on his promise as many thorny issues remain unresolved between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
    
Lt Gen (retired) Kamal Matinuddin, a leading defence analyst and close watcher of the country's nuclear programme, said Zardari's remarks appeared to have been made in an "off the cuff" manner and he was apparently "not fully informed or completely aware of" Pakistan's stated nuclear doctrine.
    
The opposition PML-N said the PPP-led government appeared to be indulging in "public relations" exercises instead of focussing on resolving "real issues" like the dragging Kashmir issue.
    
Matinuddin, who authored the book "Nuclearisation of South Asia" that charts Pakistan's nuclear programme, admitted that Zardari's remarks marked a significant shift from the country's established nuclear doctrine.
    
Matinuddin said Pakistan had retained the option in view of its "open borders" and status as a smaller nuclear power.    "Deterrence works only when the enemy knows Pakistan will use its nuclear weapons," he said.
    
Zardari's comments, he pointed out, would "reduce the effect of deterrence".

Significantly, Matinuddin said there had been no official change in Pakistan's established nuclear doctrine as the matter had not been debated by the Strategic Plans Division, the organisation which manages the nuclear arsenal, parliament or the Foreign Office.
    
"A change in the nuclear doctrine has not taken place," he said.
    
Opposition PML-N spokesman Ahsan Iqbal, a close confidant of party chief Nawaz Sharif, said Zardari's remarks amounted to a "public relations" exercise "that will not take us anywhere".
    
Iqbal also said there was nothing new in Zardari's proposal for a pact to declare South Asia a nuclear-free zone as Sharif had mooted a similar proposal when he was Prime Minister in the 1990s.
    
"Moreover, the Lahore Declaration signed by Mr Sharif and then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999 said both sides would hold talks to ensure that there is no nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan," he said.
    
Answering a question on whether Pakistan would say that it would not use its nuclear weapons against India, Zardari had said: "I am against nuclear warfare altogether. Leave alone use, I don't appreciate it."
    
Asked whether this meant Pakistan would not make first use of nuclear weapons, he replied, "Most definitely."     

Shortly after conducting a series of nuclear tests in May 1998, India announced a "no first use" nuclear doctrine.    

Pakistan, on the other hand, kept open the option of first use of atomic weapons as part of its policy of deterrence, citing its lack of conventional military parity.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is controlled by the powerful army, which has ruled the country for almost half of its history.
    
The military has always been wary of political interference in nuclear issues even though the atomic weapons programme was launched by Zardari's father-in-law and PPP founder Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.
    
Iqbal said there was no disagreement among political parties in Pakistan on the need to end hostility with India and establish peace in South Asia.
    
"But for this, we will have to focus on real issues like Kashmir and interference in Pakistan from Afghanistan. The Indian influence in this regard has to be addressed," he said.     

The PML-N spokesman warned that these "real issues have the potential to derail bilateral relations".
    
The PPP-led government, Iqbal said, had shown "no real imagination" and launched no major initiatives to address the outstanding problems with India and seemed to be content following the domestic and foreign policies initiated by the regime of former President Pervez Musharraf.
    
Though army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has kept the armed forces at a distance from politics since he came to power last year, the PPP-led government has had to maintain a delicate balance in its dealings with the military.
    
The government faced considerable embarrassment in July when it was forced to withdraw a move to take over the powerful army-led ISI and place it under the interior ministry.