Even if the Sri Lankan military overruns the rebel capital of Kilinochchi, it would only “disperse the (LTTE) problem” and wouldn’t be the end of a quarter-century-old civil war.
But violence will continue, say sources in the intelligence establishment
NEW DELHI: Even if the Sri Lankan military overruns the rebel capital of Kilinochchi, it would only “disperse the (LTTE) problem” and wouldn’t be the end of a quarter-century-old civil war in the island nation, believe Indian security establishment.
According to sources involved in assessing and analysing Sri Lanka’s civil war, a military takeover of Kilinochchi would only disperse the LTTE into smaller guerrilla groups. The immediate result could be a wave of suicide attacks in major cities like Colombo, and on high-value targets, they fear. A senior intelligence source says, Sri Lanka will “enter a more turbulent period.”
However, another senior source in the security establishment says, once LTTE is denied territorial dominance, it will change tactics and resort to more suicide attacks and other such acts. This is visible in the eastern province, which the LTTE lost after the Karuna faction split from them in 2004. Political assassinations and other acts of violence by LTTE continues in the eastern province, despite the TMVP (Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Puligal) — the political party led by Karuna, a former senior LTTE member — coming to power there.
A step up in targeted attacks, or suicide attacks would only further complicate the situation. “The military offensive definitely robs LTTE of some legitimacy, but that doesn’t end the violence,” says an analyst within the security establishment.
Indian security establishment also do not completely buy into the claims of Sri Lanka defence ministry that they are just a couple of kilometers away from Kilinochchi. They believe that the Sri Lankan forces are facing resistance and may not overrun the rebel capital so easily.
Sources also say there has been no increase in the number of refugees flowing into Tamil Nadu despite the onslaught of violence in recent months. The number of those returning to Sri Lanka from the refugee camps in Tamil Nadu has also not dropped, say sources. “LTTE wouldn’t let the civilians leave the island,” says one source, pointing that the civilian presence provides them a shield as well as the semblance of being a legitimate representative of Tamil people.
j_josy@dnaindia.net
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