Counting game

Tennis is not all about aces, serves, returns and winners. It is also about arithmetic. Each victory holds potential dangers for the year ahead and each defeat constantly haunts you. Ranjona Banerji says the US Open champion can overtake the world No 1 and arch-rival Rafael Nadal if....

The good news for a resurgent Roger Federer is that the end of 2007 wasn’t such a great year for him either, the way most of 2008 hasn’t been. This gives him a sliver of hope to climb back up the rankings, from No 2 to No 1. Last year, after smashing Novak Djokovic in the US Open, he proceeded to lose to David Nalbandian twice — once in Madrid and then again in Paris.

As world No 2, Federer has 5930 points, compared to world No 1 Rafael Nadal’s 7000 and No 3 Djokovic’s 4855. By the historical-mathematical system used by the Association of Tennis Professionals to formulate the rankings, players must defend the points won the year before. In 2008, Federer has to defend 650 points for winning the Masters Cup in Shanghai and 250 points for winning the Davidoff indoors in Basel. So the countdown to get back to No 1 for the US Open champ starts with winning the Masters series tournaments in Paris and Madrid. That way, he adds new points to his total, which he won’t have to worry about till next year, if he has to worry at all in 2009.

At the Paris Masters series last year, he lost in the round of 16 to Nalbandian. That means he got 75 points. If he wins the tournament, he gets 500 points. That adds 425 to his current 5930, which makes it a potential 6355. In Madrid, he did better and lost in the finals, again to Nalbandian, which gave him 350 points. That means if he wins Madrid, he stands to gain 150 points. That makes it 6505.

The only new factor in his schedule this year is the Stockholm Open in early October for which he stands to gain 225 points. That makes it 6725. So if you put all the ifs and buts together (winning every tournament between now and including the Masters Cup), he still falls 275 points short of Nadal’s 7000. Next year, then, he was to start by winning his first tournament, which is likely to be the Australian Open, for which he can add 450 points to his total, having lost in the semis to eventual winner Djokovic.

However, Nadal is not likely to stand still either. He too had a bad end to 2007, because this is not his favourite part of the tennis year. Nadal lost the Paris Masters final to Nalbandian, so has to defend 350 points, and the Madrid quarters, also to Nalbandian (go figure) and has to defend 125 points. He lost the semis at the Masters Cup to Federer, for which he got 200 points. So of his 7000, 675 are up for defence.
His next tournament is Madrid in mid-October. If Nadal wins both Madrid and Paris, he too stands to gain 375 points. This makes him the strongest contender to maintain his ranking. Until the Australian Open, where he too lost the semifinal to the runner-up, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga.

Djokovic is next playing the Thailand Open in Bangkok. That’s 175 new points if he wins it. He got 5 points in Paris, so everything to gain there, 225 in Madrid and 250 in Vienna. He had 0 points in the Masters Cup, so all those points will be new. That’s a potential 945 points to be made by winning everything. That’s still 130 short of Federer’s current points, so Djokovic has to top winning everything from now on with improving his showing at the Masters Cup to get ahead. He also has to defend the Australian Open title which is 1000 points. And guess who’s gunning for that one?

Is becoming the top male tennis player only a question of arithmetic? In some sense, yes. The ATP has devised a system which keeps tennis players constantly on their toes, where each victory holds potential dangers for the year ahead and each defeat constantly haunts you. Sadly, a good calculator is not enough to win you the maths exam.

You have to play superbly, not get tired, serve well, move beautifully, hit winners from all hands… you get the picture. The game is afoot. The year is not over and 2009 looks to be the battle of the numbers. En garde.