In less than 25 years, greenhouse gas emissions will devastate the weather and economies of all coastal cities in India, says a NITIE study.
MUMBAI: By 2030, Mumbaikars may face cataclysmic events like floods, droughts, and malarial epidemics that will make the July 26, 2005, deluge look like a gentle eddy.
A yearlong study, Climate Change and Domestic Mitigation Efforts, carried out by Dr Vijaya Gupta, professor of economics at the National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), reveals that a four-fold increase in the country’s gross domestic product will be accompanied by an increase in emissions of greenhouse gases. These pollutants will have devastating consequences on all coastal cities across the country, including Mumbai.
According to Gupta’s research, the climate change will shrink the monsoon by 15 days. Surface temperatures across the country will rise by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius, leading to rising sea levels and increasingly erratic weather, and affecting vital water, sewer, highway and other infrastructure systems serving Mumbai.
For instance, a 1 metre rise in sea level will inundate Mumbai, costing Rs2,28,700 crore in damages.
Nothing and no one will remain untouched. Subways and tunnels, communication lines, power plants, buildings, sewers, water systems, and every possible physical structure in the city could be affected. Government officials will have to face a whole slew of potential problems such as the vulnerability of tall buildings to howling winds and rising water tables weakening foundations. Those winds may also blow down transmission towers, jeopardising energy supplies.
As the mercury rises, so will heat-related health problems from asthma to insect infestation. More wet and stormy weather may result in frequent transportation delays everywhere, from the airport to the railways.
Dr Krishna Kumar, senior scientist with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, said his institute has done similar research, with results not quite so alarming. But he cautions that several significant climate shifts are taking place, which must be taken seriously.
Kumar says part of the reason for the lack of knowledge in this area is that India has only about 100 climatologists, with only a handful working specifically on climate change.
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