The MNS leader claimed that in areas where the party nominee was strong vis-a-vis the Shiv Sena and the BJP, supporters of the latter would opt to go in for “tactical voting” just to snub the Sena
Five years after jolting its rival Shiv Sena and the BJP by breaking political ground in Mumbai and sweeping Marathi-dominated areas like Dadar in the civic polls, a lot of water has flown under the bridge for the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).
In the 2012 BMC elections, the MNS had won 28 seats, up from the seven in 2007, and had also rubbed salt into the Shiv Sena’s wounds by winning all civic wards in the Dadar-Mahim belt, where the Sena was first started in 1966.
Even as Mumbai votes on Tuesday, senior MNS leaders admit that a steady erosion in its natural catchment of support, polarisation between the Shiv Sena and BJP and desertions by the party’s leadership and cadre may affect their electoral chances.
“The party has seen a sharp decline,” admitted an MNS leader, adding that they could nonetheless emerge as king-makers in case of a hung house. “Our internal assessments suggest we can win 15 seats and considering that the media is trying to write us off, this is an achievement of sorts,” he added.
“In the state Assembly polls, the Shiv Sena and BJP’s alliance fell apart and the working-class Maharashtrian voters polarised in favour of the former with non-Marathis choosing the BJP. A section of the upper and middle-class Maharashtrians, who were not natural supporters of the Shiv Sena and voted for us, went for the BJP due to the Modi wave. However, since this BJP wave has waned, we hope to get these floating and auxiliary votes,” the MNS leader said, adding that the Shiv Sena’s traditional voter base would also shift loyalties to the MNS due to anti-incumbency and fatigue.
The MNS leader claimed that in areas where the party nominee was strong vis-a-vis the Shiv Sena and the BJP, supporters of the latter would opt to go in for “tactical voting” just to snub the Sena.
The bench strength of the MNS in the state Assembly has fallen to just one from 13 in 2009 and the party has drawn a blank in Mumbai from six seats in 2009. Moreover, most of its ex-legislators like Pravin Darekar, Mangesh Sangle and Vasant Gite have shifted to other parties. Of its 28 corporators in the BMC, eight have quit the MNS.
“Those who left did so as they had no patience,” the MNS leader claimed.
Despite the charisma, oratory and emotional appeal of their party chief, MNS activists, while speaking off the record, admit that factors like the inability to take up broader issues concerning farmers, unorganised sector workers and slum-dwellers, weak party organisation, an urban-centric approach and top-down communication are responsible for the decline.
They admit that an inability to take issues like the agitation against non-transparency in toll payments to their logical end, the absence of a credible programme for cadres and flip-flops like Raj’s support to Modi’s Prime Ministerial bid and later criticism had also hurt them.
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