The severe drubbing BJP received in by-polls, has come as a manna from heaven for Shiv Sena, which is caught in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with its saffron ally on seat-sharing issue. Sena feels the results on Tuesday would serve as a wake up call for BJP and underline the importance of strong allies.
"By-poll results show the BJP may be skating on thin ice. Despite the bravado, there is no chance of them going it alone," said a Sena source.
BJP's setback would give them a psychological advantage in the seat-sharing exercise, Sena leaders pointed out. Relying merely on Modi wave in the elections scheduled for Oct 15 would be impractical, they said.
"The results would put BJP on the defensive on the negotiating table," said a Sena source.
Sena and BJP tied up in 1989 after an unsuccessful electoral attempt in 1984, and the saffron allies, which had one shot at power in the state (1995 to 1999), has stayed together despite ups and downs.
Mahayuti having swept Maharashtra riding on Modi wave, BJP now wants the previous seat-sharing formula re-worked to let it contest an equal number of seats. Sena, after leaving out around 18-20 for their four smaller allies, is also eying the CM's chair.
"Actually, the results are a warning for both," said a Sena functionary, adding that it would be incorrect to presume that the Lok Sabha voting trend (Mahayuti secured a lead in 243 of the 288 assembly segments) would be replicated.
"After the success in LS polls, we should have used the opportunity to marginalise Congress and NCP. We instead spent most of our time trying to push each other to the wall," the Sena worker said, adding that the results of previous by-polls in states like Bihar had shown the potential of unified of anti-BJP forces.
In 2009 assembly polls, Sena contested 169 seats, down by two from its 2004 quota, while BJP fought from 119. Sena could win only 44 plus an independent (Vivek Pandit- Vasai) against BJP's 46.
"This will not be an easy battle," admitted a Sena legislator, adding that the results would serve as a wake up call for Sena and BJP leaders who had presumed that victory in assembly polls was a foregone conclusion.
There are also speculations that Sena has begun interviewing prospective candidates in assembly seats where BJP is planning to contest.
"People were fuming in anger against the Congress and that was reflected in the Lok Sabha results," he opined, adding that there was little chance of the trend replicating in the assembly elections.
"The takeaway from these results is that the saffron allies need to unite regardless of differences to vote out Cong-NCP, said former leader of opposition and senior Sena leader Ramdas Kadam. A Shiv Sena leader charged that BJP was trying to catch them in a cleft stick. "The influence of late Bal Thackeray can never be undermined," he pointed out.
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