NCP’s Sanjay Dina Patil overjoyed as BJP drops sitting MP Kirit Somaiya from Gujarati-dominated Mumbai NE
The BJP's decision of giving a ticket to the untested Manoj Kotak from North East Mumbai has sent cheers in the NCP camp. The party has fielded Sanjay Dina Patil, the same candidate who had lost the 2014 elections to BJP's Kirit Somaiya. But the saffron party's decision to not field Somaiya and instead field a relative lightweight has infused the NCP with confidence. A look back at the way the constituency has voted shows why it's likely to be a two-way fight again.
In 2014, riding on the Narendra Modi wave, Somaiya got 60.90 per cent of the voteshare, and defeated Patil by over 3 lakh votes. Five years prior to that, however, Patil had pipped Somaiya to the line by a slender margin of about 3,000 votes. What may have also tilted the scales in his favour could have been MNS candidate Shishir Shinde, who polled 1,95,148 votes.
Marathi speaking people comprise about 46.26 per cent of the voterbase here, much the city's average. However, it's the 11.81 per cent Gujaratis, 11.89 per cent North Indians and 15.16 per cent Muslims who are likely to be decisive. And therein lie the factors that could determine this election's fate. Somaiya, a popular Gujarati face, had drawn the community's votes towards the saffron alliance. There are fears that with Kotak, they may lose out on this.
Furthermore, while MNS has said the party will not contest any candidate from Mumbai North East, party chief Raj Thackeray has also asked party workers to campaign extensively to ensure the defeat of the Sena-BJP candidate.
Moreover, the constituency is also home to a large number of Agri voters, the community to which Patil belongs to. This too is likely to help the NCP.
While Patil sounded thrilled at the candidature of his opponent, he also sounded concern at the manner in which a party loyalist like Somaiya was denied a ticket. "People have known the deceit that the BJP has indulged in the last five years, and that is going to be our poll push. Even Somaiya's own party doesn't trust him. Though he was my rival, I feel bad for him," he said.
Later in the day, Somaiya said he wasn't sulking about being denied a ticket, rather he was confident of his party's victory. "After serving three terms in the civic body, Kotak is well aware of Mumbai's problems. He will prominently represent the city in Parliament. BJP's victory in North East Mumbai will be one of the biggest in the state," said Somaiya in a statement.
Despite all the political grandstanding by all contenders, the constituency is clearly headed for an intense contest in the coming days.
MUMBAI NORTH EAST
- The constituency includes 46% Marathis, but also 11% Gujaratis and 11% North Indians.
- Somaiya had swept the seat by over 3 lakh votes in 2014 but in 2009, he was defeated by NCP’s Sanjay Dina Patil by just 3,000 votes.
- 10 years ago, however, the MNS ate into the BJP’s voteshare, something that won’t happen now
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
 "Sanjay Dina Patil and Kirit Somaiya")
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
)
)
)
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}