Production of major crops is likely to fall by 2.8 per cent in 2012-13 due to lower acreage, economic think tank CMIE has said.
"Production of major crops is projected to fall by 2.8% in 2012-13. We have revised our production projections downwards from our earlier estimate of 2.3% decline," Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in monthly report.
As the kharif sowing came to an end by October, acreage turned out to be lower than expectations. Production of rice is projected to fall by 3.4% in FY13 as its acreage declined by 4.1% to 375 lakh hectares as on November 2.
"As sowing failed to pick pace, we now expect rice production to be limited to 100.8 million tonne in 2012-13," it said.
Wheat output is expected to fall by 0.1% to 93.8 million tonne, it said adding rabi that sowing of the foodgrain was yet to be initiated by November 2.
Coarse cereals production is projected to fall for the second consecutive fiscal and is expected to decline by 9.8% to 37.6 million tonne.
Of this, bajra may record steepest dip of 28.4% as irregular monsoon in Rajasthan, the major producing state of the coarse cereal, witnessed irregular rainfall during June-August affecting the cultivation.
Kharif sowing of bajra was undertaken on 60.8 lakh hectares as on October 19, lower by 24.8%. "We expect bajra production to fall to 7.2 million tonne in 2012-13 from 10.1 million tonne last year," it said.
Production of pulses is expected to fall by 1.5% to 16.9 million tonne in FY13. The production of green gram, horse gram and miscellaneous pulses is likely to impact the overall output, CMIE pointed out.
However, production of arhar and gram is expected to recover, with gram projected to scale up by 4.3% to 7.9 million tonne.
Rabi sowing of gram has been sluggish as in November 2 and the acreage declined by over 26% to 14.6 lakh hectares, however, CMIE expects the sowing to pick pace in the subsequent period with the government's announcement of minimum support price (MSP) at Rs 3,000 per quintal.
Production of non-food crops is expected to decline by 2.7 per cent due to lower output of fibres and oilseeds. Oilseed output is projected to dip by 1.3% in 2012-13, CMIE said.
Groundnut is projected to decline by 5.2% to 6.6 million tonne as the kharif sowing failed to improve at the end of sowing season. However, production of mustard seed and sunflower is expected to rise in FY13. Mustard seed output is expected to rise by 6.3 per cent to 7.2 million tonne and it was cultivated in 18 lakh hectares as on November 2.
"We expect the increased MSP to Rs 3,000 per quintal announced by the Centre will benefit cultivation," it pointed out.