Middle class makes Narendra Modi an urban legend

As you drive out from Ahmedabad, the excellent highways do not take you to a well-defined countryside. Instead you are transported from one town to another – a clear indication that rapid urbanisation is swallowing up large swathes of the rural hinterland. Gujarat, under Narendra Modi, is being rapidly urbanised. And the 2011 Census figures reveal that the urban population is up by 11% to 43%. After delimitation of seats, there are almost 20 more urban constituencies when compared to 2007.

That explains why Narendra Modi is so keen to campaign in the urban settlements. That explains why he has included his concern for the rapidly growing middle classes in his election manifesto. The chief minister is talking about the neo-middle class, comprising the population he has managed to lift from the BPL (below poverty line) category to a higher income bracket. He has not yet defined the “neo middle class” but it is mentioned in the manifesto that this vulnerable section, which might lapse back to poverty without committed government support, will be duly classified once he is returned to power.

Explains former IIM director, professor Bakul Dholakia,”Modi has improved the living conditions and the earnings of almost nine% of the poor in Gujarat over the past several years. And nine% of a total 6 crore population means an impressive 54 lakh.” Dholakia points to sections of the manifesto where Modi’s economic vision is more than explicit. He wants the state government to provide bank guarantee for loans that young and ambitious entrepreneurs desperately need. Says the diminutive academic: “Suresh Tendulkar’s report has already pointed out that Gujarat has the sharpest declining rate of poverty.”

Economist Bibek Debroy, who has been visiting Modi’s Gujarat and doing several studies on its economic indicators, said that this phenomenon is not just urban. “It also happened in the Gujarat countryside following widespread diversification of agriculture. Mono-crop regions are growing two crops. There is better availability of water and electricity.” Debroy agrees that in quite a few parts of the country, there is an upward mobility. He cites the example of western Uttar Pradesh where the previously impoverished is earning a great deal more. But he agrees that before Modi no other politician has really identified this trend.

Modi has been working to achieve these growth parameters for quite some time now. He has been aided in his quest by the spirit of Gujarat entrepreneurship – the sheer will to defy odds and create better living conditions for oneself and one’s family. And this widespread feeling of economic well-being, especially among those who had experienced untold poverty under a previous regime, gives him a political cushion. It is his well-charted economic route to an electoral victory. Modi’s urban supporters are development-oriented. They want stability and growth. Modi is guaranteeing the optimistic voter ideal entrepreneurial conditions.

Modi has always been making an effort to unify the urban vote, to ensure that it doesn’t get over-divided by caste considerations. Urban settlements – being largely melting pots -- help him a great deal. If an OBC person is doing well, he gets wedded to the mainstream population. His OBC consciousness is overridden by his concern for better living standards. This is what Modi wants. He has already made it absolutely clear that he is bitterly opposed to politics of divide and rule or, simply put, the politics of vote-bank.

Modi will do better in urban centres not only because he has done well in these areas traditionally but also because his definition of ‘Hindutva’ has been lapped up by the urban community. They identify with his beliefs. They identify with his approach. They do not mind the fact that Modi is unwilling to make any concessions to the Muslims. They do not mind the fact that Modi refused to extend any symbolic gesture of goodwill to the Muslims and refused to wear a skull-cap when it was offered to him during the Sadbhavana rally.

They believe that 2002 is forgotten and Muslims must learn to accept and move forward even if there is no justice or no sense of closure. You get to hear these rather blunt majority sentiments in most towns across Gujarat. No wonder then that Modi will not omit a single town from his hectic campaign schedule. The urban middle class is his loyal supporter.