Mamata & Mulayam reject Sonia's prez choices, & PM

It was a slap on the face of the Congress. A crucial ally, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), and a would-be-ally, the Samajwadi Party (SP), turned the tables on the Congress by proposing their own set of three names which in a further humiliation to the ruling dispensation included the name of prime minister (PM) Manmohan Singh. It was as if these allies, flexing their muscles and indulging in the politics of brinkmanship, were urging UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi to change her PM. These friendly parties did not want Manmohan Singh in 7 Race Course Road.

This shocking political assertion came within an hour of Gandhi meeting TMC chief Mamata Banerjee and suggesting to her the two Congress preferences for president. She apparently told Banerjee that finance minister Pranab Mukherjee was the UPA’s first choice in the presidential race followed by vice-president Hamid Ansari.

There were no surprises in what Gandhi told Banerjee. These were the two names which had been doing the rounds with most Congressmen hinting that Mukherjee had an edge.

After her meeting with Gandhi at 10 Janpath, Banerjee told reporters: "We had detailed discussions ... she told me that she had held meetings with two to four allies and her first choice (for president) is Pranab Mukherjee and the second choice is Hamid Ansari. I told her that we cannot comment on these choices. I shall discuss it with Mulayam Singhji (SP chief) and my party and then get back to her.”

The leader of an ally announcing the name of the UPA’s presidential nominees on behalf of the ruling party was a surprise in itself. When the Mulayam-Banerjee duo stepped out from the SP chief’s residence late on Wednesday, they announced three names of their choice for president: former president Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, PM Manmohan Singh and former Lok Sabha speaker Somnath Chatterjee in order of preference. What they did was push the main party — the Congress — into a corner and even indicated to it that they preferred a change in the PM’s job.

The UPA has decided to convene a meeting of all allies within 48 hours to decide on a consensus candidate. The Congress does not want to lose any time and hold the meeting as early as possible. The objective of the meeting is to focus on a name acceptable to everybody. It is quite likely that none of the five names thrown up on Wednesday — either by Gandhi or by Banerjee and Mulayam — may find acceptance. A sixth name may be floated.

There was utter confusion in the Congress on Wednesday night. There was nobody in the party who came forward to defend the PM whose very existence in his office had been indirectly questioned by two major allies. Nobody took a risk, afraid of alienating two very aggressive allies who were trying to call the shots and impose their will on the government.

Banerjee also snubbed Manmohan Singh in the process. She received a call from the PM’s residence earlier in the day, asking her to meet him at 6pm. But she did not keep the appointment and it is unlikely that she would meet the PM after having insulted him on Wednesday.

It was apparent that the noises being made in the TMC quarters that Banerjee would ultimately support Mukherjee were not true indications. It was also obvious that Banerjee had retained her old animosity towards the veteran Congressman from her home state and even the Bengali card did not help Mukherjee’s cause.

Publicly, of course, Banerjee has always been expressing her reservations about Mukherjee as well as Ansari. Mulayam had openly said that he was opposed to Ansari. So, their stated positions were at variance with the position adopted by the Congress.

Looked from another perspective, Gandhi's opening gambit for the presidential election has the virtue of insulating herself from any criticism that would follow in the event of Mukherjee being denied presidency.

There has been a huge build-up in favour of Mukherjee and there has been a groundswell of support for him in political circles. However, as the mood swung in Mukherjee's favour, there was a sustained impression that Gandhi was not in favour of him becoming a resident of Rashtrapati Bhavan. Now, she has effectively rebuffed this criticism, irrespective of the final outcome of the race.

Even Mulayam has been supportive of Mukherjee's candidature, but now, as he makes common cause with Banerjee to enhance the political clout of the non-Congress parties in the running of the UPA-2, he has also negated the finance minister's candidature.
This was the first day after the schedule was announced. It is expected that the names floated by the three big guns — Gandhi, Mulayam and Banerjee — would be debated at length.

There is also talk of brinkmanship on the part of both these parties because they are eager to increase their presence in the Lok Sabha by precipitating the mid-term polls. Mulayam is hopeful of sweeping an Uttar Pradesh general election if polls were to be held now, especially after such a great performance in the recently concluded assembly polls.

Similarly, the TMC is eager for an early election and does not want to wait till 2014. It is also a coincidence that both states suffer from financial constraints and need the Centre to bail them out.
Finally, there is the conspiracy theory. The Congress may have precipitated this scenario wanting Manmohan Singh out and carefully used the services of an eager Banerjee. Though there is a section of the Congress which harbours the view that Mukherjee would make a better PM than Manmohan Singh in these difficult times, it is virtually impossible for the Congress to have conceived such an elaborate plan.