India's weather office expects normal rainfall in the June-September monsoon season, raising hopes of a rebound in farm output after last year's severe drought.
India's weather office expects normal rainfall in the June-September monsoon season, raising hopes of a rebound in farm output after last year's severe drought.
Rainfall is likely to be 98% of the long-term average, said the weather office, whose forecast is closely watched by commodities and financial markets as well as the government, which is battling to rein in inflation against a backdrop of intense protests over rising food prices.
Good monsoon rains would help raise output of soybeans, sugar, corn, rice and cotton and reduce food inflation.
Commentary:
Nikhil Nanda, executive director, Escorts Ltd
"A good rain means good crop, good crop means better yields, better yields means more income, more income means good business not only for tractors but also to cars and motorbike makers. If the monsoons are normal it will have a positive ripple effect.
"We believe we will be doing better business in the second half than what we have done in the first half of the fiscal".
Sanjay Tapriya, director-finance, Simbhaoli Sugar
"For monsoon it is too early to comment right now. Even within rainy periods it is tough to say which months or days will see more rain.
But yes, normal monsoon means normal sugarcane crop. It is difficult to guess about output expectations right now but my guess is it should be around 22-23 million tonnes."
BJ Maheshwari, Dwarikesh Sugar
"Monsoon was expected to be normal this time. This is good for sugar industry in general. Sugarcane production is expected to be higher next year. If there is no aberration and monsoon is normal, around 24 million tonnes."
Anil Agarwal, director, Sanwaria Agro Oils
"It will not have any impact on the crop as expectations were of a normal monsoon. However, looking at the current prices we can see lower sowing. We can see diversion to other crops where farmers can earn more money."
RK Dalmia, senior president, Century Textiles & Industries
"A good and timely monsoon will benefit cotton crop production. Availability of good quality cotton at a reasonable price will surely help the textile industry.
Secondly, the overall economy will also improve leading to more demand for our products".
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