BANGALORE:Will J Jayalalithaa return to power? That is the latest question being asked on PublicGyan, a predictions market, which aggregates information from individuals to make accurate forecasts on subjects like politics, business and sports.
PublicGyan is an invite-only, general interest market started by Nitin Pai and Srijith Krishnan Nair. The site encourages members to determine the outcome of events by trading stocks using virtual currency or Moolers. Betting on the outcome of the upcoming assembly polls in Tamil Nadu, stocks with a ticker symbol
JJ-WINS-TN-06 are being traded since October 8, 2005.
The arbitration date, when the results of the bet will be announced is June 30. Trading will close on the given date and site moderators will declare the results after checking online newspaper editions for the actual poll results.
About 100 Jayalalithaa shares are being traded at an initial price of 40 moolers each. The average share price touched 80 moolers as on April 6, which bodes well for Jayalalithaa’s future.
Betters get 2,000 moolers when they sign up to trade in the predictions market. In case of bets related to elections, shares are bought and sold seeing how the candidate is likely to perform. After the results are announced, members can claim moolers if their predictions win at the price fixed by moderators.
PublicGyan has 172 members and trades on future events like the Congress winning the 2008 Delhi assembly polls and the possibility of at least one IT major exiting Bangalore by 2006.
The site hosts blog discussions and provides links to the latest news and views on active or ongoing predictions. The site’s co-founders have cited the James Surowiecki book, The Wisdom of Crowds, as an inspiration, as it champions the cause of prediction markets.
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