The country has sufficient food grain stock, particularly wheat and rice, while its programmes should help improve rural incomes.
The drought has managed to do what years of lobbying by paddy growers could not: the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs on Thursday hiked the minimum price paid to farmers for paddy and pulses by Rs100 and up to Rs240 per quintal. The aim is to provide a cushion in view of an expected fall in production due to the drought.
The logic behind the hike is that farmers need more for their produce to improve their incomes in a bad year. Drought, food stocks, open sale market and food for work — these are words India did not have to deal with for the past seven years since the last drought was in 2002.
Nearly half the country has been declared drought-hit with an overall 29% deficit in rainfall across the country. Plainly put, this is the driest monsoon in 83 years with 246 districts of a total of 626 being declared drought-hit by state governments. A 10-million tonne shortfall in paddy, which means nearly 5.7 million hectare of field was not sown with paddy due the rain shortfall.
With the rainfall situation not expected to increase, the government's concentration has now moved from watching the skies to actual drought management.
The good news is that ample food stocks exist. Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said that the Centre has procured a record 326 lakh tonnes of rice and 253 lakh tonnes of wheat this season.
Food-for-work programmes and the NREGA will be beefed up to improve farm incomes.
As for the urban population reeling under rising prices, the agriculture ministry has said that open sale of food grains will be permitted to make sure adequate stocks shatter the myth of scarcity. While wheat and rice buffer stocks can be off loaded to bring down prices, sugar and pulses are a problem.
Officials say that while the Diwali season may pass off fairly cheaply, the real problem will be after the kharif season is over.
The best-case scenario could be an improvement in August rainfall and salvaging of the present kharif (summer) crop. Alternatively, the rabi season could be optimised through short duration crops. The worst, could be farmers not getting access to credit for the rabi and summer crops, and limited access to good short duration seeds. "This could compound the drought situation. Instead of a kharif season drought, this could elongate into one lasting the entire year," said planning commission member Abhijit Sen.
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