Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath has the keys to Modi's 2019 success

If the new Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is to keep his party's election promise, all slaughter houses in the state should be shut down within 24 hours of his swearing in, and farmers' debt waived off. These were the two main promises that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah reiterated at almost every rally during electioneering in the state.

"A decision will be taken in the first Cabinet meeting within 24 hours," was an oft-repeated statement heard during their public meetings, drawing big applause from the crowd. These promises also find a pride of place in the BJP's 30-page election manifesto.

But can the firebrand CM handle these two contentious issues in such a short span of time? With an empty coffer, Yogi has to make amendments for a whopping Rs 85,000 crore if he is to waive farmers' debt. Closing 126 slaughter house units is also next to impossible task. Amit Shah has already modified his statement, distinguishing between legal and illegal abattoirs.

Uttar Pradesh is the second largest exporter of beef in the country after Kerala. "It is next to impossible for Modi or Yogi to shut down slaughter houses in Uttar Pradesh as it earns much-needed foreign currency for the country," said Shameem Qureshi, a slaughter house owner in western UP.

Also, majority of abattoirs are owned by politicians. There was a hue and cry when Sangeet Som, a BJP MLA from Sardhana, allegedly sought land for setting up an abattoir.

Sugar farmers' dues is another issue which may bind the new CM in a spot. Once known as the sugar bowl of the country, sugar mill lobby is quiet strong in UP. They give hefty donations to the ruling parties to settle the minimum support price and policies on molasses etc in their favour. The factories, which make huge profits by selling molasses and ethanol, blatantly refuse to clear dues of the farmers which come to around Rs 6,000 crore.

"We will launch an agitation if the government fails to fulfill promise to farmers," said VM Singh, leader of sugarcane farmers and a close relative of Union Minister Maneka Gandhi.

Deteriorating law and order and corruption in power corridors are other challenges before Yogi. Though the CM has given clear instruction to Chief Secretary Rahul Bhatnagar and DGP Javeed Ahmed to maintain law and order at any cost, Sambhal had come close to witnessing a communal riot even before his swearing-in, as the BJP supporters clashed with members of a minority community over a small accident.

A can of worms would be opened if Yogi chooses to probe big-budget projects of previous Akhilesh government, including the Lucknow-Delhi expressway. "Providing a clean, corruption-free administration and keeping the corrupt bureaucracy under check would be a daunting task," noted Afsar Husain, a senior journalist.

Uttar Pradesh face a shortfall of about 2000 MW power every day. Meeting the shortage and making power available in every village will be another challenge. Also, not many industrialists had taken interest in UP as an investment destination ever since Mayawati shut shops of Reliance Retail in 2008.

"How the government strengthens infrastructure and extends a congenial atmosphere to industrialists and corporate houses in order to bring investment in the state would largely depend upon how bureaucracy is controlled by the new CM," said DS Varma, an office-bearer of Indian Industries Association (IIA).

It would be interesting to watch what model Yogi would adopt to accelerate the pace of development in the state, which is far below national average on many counts. "Yogiji has three models at hand viz Modi model, Kalyan model and his own Gorakhnath model. Modi model of development is most suited as its success rate is seen by all," suggested Rama Pati Ram, a senior BJP leader, who was a minister in the Kalyan Singh Cabinet.

But the main problem with hardliner Yogi is that he has only less than two years to deliver. "For an inclusive growth, Yogi will have to concentrate on development ahead of Hindutva. People have high expectations from the new BJP government and if it fails to deliver, the saffron brigade will feel the heat in the 2019 parliamentary polls," said another senior BJP functionary on condition of anonymity.