With no CM face, and lack of proper micromanagement, BJP is facing massive problems in Uttarakhand.
On paper, a BJP victory in Uttarakhand looks like a no-brainer. A state born during BJP rule, home to some of the most pious destinations for Hindus, with a sizeable population of current and ex-security members, it seemed like Uttarakhand was created keeping in mind conditions favourable for a BJP victory. But with a couple of days to go for elections, even die-hard supporters wouldn't predict a clean sweep for the party.
This time anti-incumbency, the poor renovation activity post-2013 floods, allegations of corruption against the Rawat government had provided enough ammunition to BJP to romp home. A step of miscalculations coupled with massive infighting has got Congress back in a game, when they looked dead and buried after being decimated in the 2014 General Elections when BJP did a clean sweep in Uttarakhand.
So in this election, BJP is going hammer-and-tongs harping against the Harish Rawat government and how a BJP government under mentorship of Narendra Modi can change the face of the state. PM Modi's promise of an all-weather road for Char Dham has resonated with the voters. but for now the biggest problem for BJP is to control their internal battle. As many as 18 BJP rebels are fighting against their party candidates. Most of these are in politically important Garhwal region (49 seats) where the margins of victory and defeat are often extremely thin. The party hopes that Narendra Modi's messaging will ensure that voters stay loyal to the lotus and not get swayed by the appeal of local satraps who are contesting as independents. Even BJP state party chief Ajay Bhatt is facing a tough fight thanks to a rebel in Ranikhet.
(Harish Rawat releasing Congress manifesto- PTI)
BJP's rebel problem is the outcome of accommodating at least 11 Congress MLAs who were given tickets after joining the party. The most brazen decision was awarding tickets to cabinet minister Yashpal Arya and his son Sanjeev just hours after they joined BJP. The BJP has looked to adopt the Assam model in Uttarakhand by haemorrhaging Congress with high-profile exits. But unlike Assam, the party doesn't have a CM face and there is no chanakya like Himanta Biswa Sarma, who micromanaged the entire campaign in Assam. BJP hasn't projected a CM face fearing division in the party ranks and hopes that Modi magic will take them home. In 2012, the party lost the elections by one seat. It would hope that this doesn't become another case of so near, yet so far.
However, BJP can take solace in the fact that the situation is not exactly rosy in the opposition camp. Harish Rawat and Congress party chief Ashoke Upadhyay are at loggerheads continuously. It is also facing rebellion and Rawat is the only tall leader who is carrying on the cudgel of Congress. Harish Rawat has tried to essentially posed himself as an underdog trying to upset the Modi wave. Rawat has gained clout after scuttling a coup last year. While his plan for alliance an with PDF didn't materialise, he has managed to wean away some top leaders from Uttarakhand Kranti Dal.
The third pole in the Uttarakhand axis is Mayawati's BSP. The party is merely a shadow of itself after doing credibly well in the past elections. Yet in Hardwar and Udhamsingh Nagar district, it might play a role in 20 seats. Overall, BJP is still favourite, but Harish Rawat's aggressive slog-over batting have kept Congress well and truly in the game.
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