UP Elections 2017: It's demonetisation vs dissension in state's dhaba debates

Over hot tea and samosas at dhabas along the highway these winter evenings, the conversation often turns to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Singh. And it is invariably about Modi's demonetization and the feud in the state's first family – the Yadavs.

The debate rages furiously with Modi promising better times for the poor and middle class after demonetization and Akhilesh's revolt sending the message that he would not let the "jungle raj" taint hurt the Samajwadi Party (SP).

At the Ram Sevak Tea Shop along the road from Lucknow to Rae Bareli in the state's Awadh region, a group of youngsters, who stopped by for their morning tea, said Modi holds sway. "He is fighting corruption," said one as another nodded in agreement, echoing a sentiment that seems to be prevalent in the poll-bound state. At another highway, around 160 km away, opinion was divided. "Modi is great. But this election is for the chief minister...

Now Akhilesh has also got the SP's cycle symbol," said Tiwari Lal of Unnao. Sanjay Singh, who belongs to the upper caste Thakur community, the traditional vote bank of the BJP, expressed the hope that Modi would do something for the state. "In five years, village pradhans change so why not the government?" he asked.

If Modi's demonetization gamble seems to have paid off, particularly with his projection as a "messiah" for the poor, Akhilesh is believed to have played his cards prudently too and has emerged as a youth icon.

Seen as "unblemished" and "decisive" leaders, both have emerged as cardinal faces of their respective parties in the assembly segments. Few deny that Akhilesh has done development work in his tenure and most laud Modi's attempts to fight corruption and his "pro-poor" agenda.

"Modi has given us gas cylinders. He has promised that the black money that has been unearthed will be used for benefit of poor," said a youth in Unnao. Harishchandra Verma, a farmer, praised Akhilesh saying he was young and had a long way to go. "Family fights happen everywhere. Youth should be encouraged," he said. Verma happens to be a Lodh, an OBC, to which BJP leaders Kalyan Singh and Uma Bharti belong.

Modi came in for praise across sections for taking "decisive steps" like demonetization and his government's welfare schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana and the Jan Dhan Yojana. His assurances to the poor and middle class after demonetization have further raised expectations, holding sway over the electoral discourse.

The BJP, which has not projected a chief ministerial candidate, is banking on winning voters across caste lines, particularly the non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits. Several said Modi has connected directly with the people and has become the BJP's face in every seat in the state, which has 73 MPs from the party in the 403-member house.

The development work carried out in Akhilesh's tenure is appreciated even by those who opposed him. But Akhilesh has one chink in his armour-- the law and order situation during his government's tenure.

While some are ready to forgive him after he has taken on his uncle Shivpal Yadav, others feel it's too late and a few also suspect that the feud was stage managed. Besides its Yadav vote, the SP is hoping for Muslim consolidation in its favour. The SP hopes that the alliance with the Congress will give at an "additional" edge. "We consider the Congress a secular party. It can strengthen the feeling that we believe in dharma nirpekshata (secularism)," state minister Rajendra Chaudhury said.

In Lakhimpuri Khiri

Caste and community affiliations largely eclipse other factors in a state where these have always stirred the political cauldron. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), though overshadowed by the raging debates involving the prime minister and chief minister, seems to have retained the allegiance of its core Harijan voter in Lakhmipur Khiri, the state's largest district.

Furniture shop owners, several of whom are Muslims, were upset with demonetization, saying it had hurt their business. "Business went down," said Manish Sahu, a Teli, a community which is part of the non-Yadav OBC section which all parties are closely watching. "In behenji's time there was no goonda raj, but there was in Akhilesh's rule. What's the point in rebelling now when elections are around the corner," said Anil Kumar, who belonged to the Scheduled Caste.
                                                                                                  
BJP leaders said Awadh, which has a sizeable OBC vote, has been one of the weak regions for the party. The BJP, which had faced a humiliating defeat in Bihar, another state where caste dominates electoral politics, is trying to break the barriers of identity politics. A party leader admitted that the BJP had not factored in the developments in the SP—the feud which brought Akhilesh into the forefront of the discourse, his getting the cycle symbol and then aligning with the Congress.