Tamil Nadu all set to witness blockbuster action thriller

After witnessing multi-cornered contests in two elections, Tamil Nadu politics is back to its time-tested bi-polar mode. Both the ruling AIADMK and the principal opposition DMK are leading alliances with a mix of national and regional parties for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Tamil Nadu will vote in the second phase on April 18 in all 39 Lok Sabha seats along with bypolls to 18 Assembly seats.

In 2014, the AIADMK won 37 out of the 39 Lok Sabha seats without any major ally while the DMK, just after leaving the UPA drew a blank, again without a major partner. The BJP and the Pattali Makkal Katchi won a seat each as part of the NDA alliance. In the 2016 Assembly polls, there was a six-way contest that helped Jayalalithaa to return to power, the first successive term for any party since 1984. The DMK-Congress combine finished with 98 seats just 1.03 per cent less than the AIADMK which won 136. None of the other four alliances — led by Vijayakanth's DMDK, the PMK, the BJP and the Naam Thamizhar Katch led by director-turned-politician Seeman — won a seat.

The 2019 polls are in a way a litmus test for the leadership of both AIADMK and DMKas it will first major election post-Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi. The ruling AIADMK which won successive polls — 2014 LS polls and 2016 state polls — without any major allies has floated a mega alliance comprising of BJP, Ramadoss's PMK, actor-politician Vijayakanth's DMDK and Dalit party Puthiya Thamizhagam while talks are on with former Congress leader GK Vasan who has floated his own party Tamil Maanila Congress.

DMK has expanded its front comprising of Congress and IUML by admitting CPI(M), CPI, Vaiko's MDMK, Dalit party VCK and two caste outfits – Indiya Jananayaga Katchi and Kongunadu Desiya Makkal Katchi.

(DMK leader MK Stalin with Congress president Rahul Gandhi)

AIADMK gambit

The post-Jayalalithaa AIADMK, apart from missing a mass vote-getter in her, is widely perceived to have capitulated to BJP. A video clip of BJP president Amit Shah ordering AIADMK coordinator and Tamil Nadu deputy chief minister O Panneerselvam that their alliance must be called the National Democratic Alliance is seen as proof to such perception. Panneerselvam chose to visit Shah at Madurai after BJP joined AIADMK alliance as a junior partner, and was allotted five seats. BJP is believed to be behind the rebellion led by Panneerselvam soon after Jayalalithaa's death and his faction's subsequent merger. From imposition of Hindi and Sanskrit to NEET and the Centre's alleged biased stand on Cauvery river water issue, the Narendra Modi government has been facing stiff opposition from the Tamil Nadu opposition.

As if it's not enough, AIADMK joined hands with one of their harshest critics — PMK, which enjoys considerable support base among the Vanniyar caste, a most backward community in the Northern and parts of Western Tamil Nadu. PMK bagged seven LS seats in the alliance along with the promise of a Rajya Sabha seat. PMK last aligned with AIADMK in 2009 LS polls but lost all the seven seats it contested even as the alliance won 12 seats altogether. PMK was not only critical on the Edappadi K Palaniswami government but went to court against its move construct a memorial of late Jayalalithaa.

But Palaniswami himself dismissed the past remarks by the allies saying, "Poll alliances with keep changing; electoral understanding is one thing, party principles are another. During every election, each party wants to win the maximum number of seats … It is on that basis electoral alliances are forged."

Like PMK, DMDK which was holding parallel negotiations with both the AIADMK and the DMK joined the former's alliance and would contest in four LS seat. Jayalalithaa came to power in 2011 after joining an alliance with DMDK but they parted ways after a spat between AIADMK supremo and Viajyakanth in the Assembly. Jayalalithaa later told the assembly that she regretted aligning with the actor and said the downfall of the DMDK had begun. Puthiya Tamizhagam led by Dr M Krishnasamy enjoys the support of Pallars, a Dalit community in Southern Tamil Nadu. He has been actively campaigning for shifting the community from Scheduled Caste to Backward Caste category with the BJP supporting it.

A senior AIADMK leader said his party has no other option but to float an alliance to counter the DMK-led front. "Alliance with BJP and PMK helps increase our winning prospects in the northern and western Tamil Nadu. BJP has a presence in the western districts of Coimbatore and Tirupur while PMK support base spread across northern districts and parts of western districts. It will complement the AIADMK's vote bank. With the Palaniswami (from the influential Gounder community in the western belt) heading the government, we will be able to keep intact our traditional Gounder vote bank," the leader said, adding that PMK also has a considerable support base in eight out of the 18 Assembly seats where byelection would be held. "In a closely contested poll, DMDK which has one or two per cent voters across the state will tilt elections results in favour of our party or alliance," the AIADMK leader said.

The AIADMK which has 114 MLAs in the House of 234 required to win at least four seats in bypolls to remain in power.

Even though the AIADMK has 37 sitting MP seats in the state, it has allotted 18 seats for the alliance partners in return for their unconditional support to the party in the assembly bypolls.

TTV Dhinakaran factor

Out of the 21 Assembly vacancies, 18 were necessitated by the disqualification of AIADMK rebels who sided with Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam leader and Sasikala's nephew TTV Dhianakaran. In October 2018, the Madras High Court upheld the disqualification under the anti-defection law.

Dhianakaran, however, poses a strong challenge to the AIADMK leadership by continuing to tour the State wooing loyal supporters of late Jayalalithaa. In contrast to the AIADMK's total submission to the Centre, Dhinakaran chose to take on the BJP head on several issues even though he backed the saffron party's candidates in the President and Vice President polls.

Political analysts feel that Dhiankaran who belongs to the dominant Thevar community in the south would hurt the AIADMK's traditional stronghold by wooing the influential community to his side. If Dhinakaran's party succeeded in getting Thevar votes in the south, it will be in a way end of the road for the ruling party's chief Panneerselvam who also belongs to the community as well. Panneerselvam already facing the heat from the consolidation of Palaniswami's faction in the party as well as in the government.

After failing to find an ally, Dhinakaran has announced that his party would contest in all the seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry on its own. Whether Dhinakaran would become a spoiler for the AIADMK led alliance? Or he would spring a surprise result like the RK Nagar assembly bypolls in 2017 when he won defeating both the AIADMK and the DMK candidates. The LS polls will provide answers to these questions.

DMK's strategy

After losing out to the AIADMK by a slender vote difference of 1.03% in the 2016 Assembly polls, the DMK has cobbled up a formidable alliance comprising of the Congress, CPI(M), CPI, MDMK headed by Vaiko, VCK, a Dalit party, Indian Union Muslim League, Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, another Muslim outfits, and Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi, a Gounder outfit. Apart from relying on its strong alliance numbers, DMK banks on the split in AIADMK votes following Dhinakaran's rebellion and the double anti-incumbency of the Modi and the Palaniswami governments.

Senior DMK leader and former minister K Ponmudi said that the DMK-led alliance was based on principles unlike the AIADMK's "opportunistic" one for the polls. "We have formed an alliance based on principles after all these parties worked together on various issues for the last two years. People will only support such alliances and not the one's floated just ahead of the elections," he told the DNA. Moreover, he said the split in the AIADMK vote bank following Dhinakaran's rebellion would only work in the DMK's favour.

The DMK and the Congress are time-tested allies while the Left parties have their pockets of support in the industrial areas of Chennai, Coimbatore, Tirupur and Madurai and among peasants in Thanjavur, Nagapattinam and Tiruvarur. Thirumavalavan's VCK is the largest Dalit party in the State particularly enjoying a considerable support base in northern districts.

With the BJP joining the AIADMK led alliance, the DMK front can reasonably expect to consolidate the Muslims, who voted for Jayalalithaa's AIADK in 2014 with the support of the IUML and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi.

The DMK-Congress combine has traditionally performed well in the northern districts and the presence of the Dalit party Thirumavalavan's VCK would boost its chances further in this part of the state. In southern Tamil Nadu, the DMK hopes to consolidate the votes of majority Nadar community in the three districts of Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Kanyakumari with the help of the Congress. Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi whose mother Rajathi Ammal belongs to Nadar community is expected to contest from Thoothukudi constituency.

With the AIADMK-BJP alliance emerging stronger in western districts, the DMK has roped in ER Eswaran of Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) to split the dominant Gounders votes polled by the ruling party. KMDK has been allotted one seat in the DMK alliance and it would contest on the 'rising sun' symbol of the DMK.

"There is a double anti-incumbency for the AIADMK-BJP alliance. Failure of both the governments in protecting the welfare of the people of Tamil Nadu, particularly, farmers, lack of employment generation, law and order and MSMEs will hurt them. All other arithmetical calculation will not work out. If the government can boast of its performance, it will help them woo the voters. If not, it will only help our alliance," DMK's Rajya Sabha MP TKS Elangovan said.

Dismissing the AIADMK's claim of PMKjoining their front boast its chances in the northern districts, DMK leader said that not all the Vanniyars vote for the PMK. "We have a sizeable number of Vanniyars voters with us," he said, pointing to what he claimed as the "unrest within the PMK" following its alliance with the AIADMK.

After the PMK joined the AIADMK alliance, DMK has started negotiating with the Viajyakanth's DMDK. "Unlike PMK, DMDK has 3 to 4% vote base across the State. It makes an alliance with DMDK attractive," a senior DMK leader said.

Kamal Haasan debuts

With superstar Rajinikanth out of the reckoning for the LS polls, another actor-politician and Makkal Needhi Maiam founder Kamal Haasan will be testing his political fortune in the ensuing polls. Haasan has made the foray with the promise to change the political culture but it remains to be seen how well people accept him. After toying with idea of contesting the polls in an alliance, the actor-politician has made it clear that he would not "dirty his hands" by allying with corrupt political parties.

Crucial Assembly bypolls

Political analyst Prof Bernard D'Sami feel that in Tamil Nadu, national parties – BJP, Congress and Left – would be interested more in the Lok Sabha seats but both the AIADMK and the DMK have set their focus on the crucial bypolls which would determine who would remain in power. While it is a 234-member house including the Speaker in Tamil Nadu, the official strength is now down to 213 with the 21 assembly seats lying vacant. After bypolls in the 18 assembly seats (with court cases preventing the holding of elections in the three seats), the strength of the house will go up to 231 after the results are announced on May 23.

To continue in power, the ruling AIADMK will require 216 MLAs. AIADMK's present strength is 114 excluding Speaker but three of its MLAs are supporting Dhinakaran and one of the three allies who won on the AIADMK ticket has threatened to resign for aligning with the BJP. The DMK-Congress-IUML have 97 members while TTV Dhinakaran. is the lone independent legislator.

"If the DMK could win all the seats in the bypolls, they would be certainly a change of government in Tamil Nadu. So the bypolls assumes more significance for the Dravidian parties than Lok Sabha polls," Prof Bernard said, adding that it would be difficult for the AIADMK-BJP alliance to overcome the double anti-incumbency in the state.

Tamil Nadu Assembly Polls 2016

RK Nagar Assembly bypolls in December 2017:

TTV Dhinakaran (Independent) won by polling 89,013 votes followed by AIADMK (48,306 votes) and DMK (24,651 votes)