IMD upgrades forecast, monsoon to be 98% of average seasonal rainfall

In a welcome news, especially for the farm sector, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded its southwest monsoon forecast from 96% to 98% of the long-period average. This forecast includes a model error of +/- 4% . The seasonal average monsoon rainfall for the June to September period, based on 1951-2000 data, is 890mm.The IMD categorises rainfall in the 96-104% LPA range as normal while immediately below that, it is considered below normal.

The IMD issues its first long-range monsoon forecast in April and revises it in June. The IMD's revised forecast also said, based on global parameters and forecast models, indicated about 60% probability of development of weak El Niño conditions during the second half of 2017. The El Niño weather phenomenon induces warming of Pacific waters resulting in below par rainfall in South Asia and excess rainfall in South America.

Besides upgrading the assessment on quantitative rainfall over the monsoon season, IMD also gave details on region-wise rains. Central India is going to see the maximum rainfall at 100% of the long-period average, followed by South Peninsula at 99% while rainfall in North-west and North-east India are likely to receive 96% of long-period average. In July, the rainfall across the country is going to be lower at 96% of long-period average and in August it is likely to be 99%.