Why Gujarat election results will set tone for future politics

On Monday, when the Gujarat election results come out, their echo will resonate much beyond the boundaries of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state and will, in a way, set the tone for the 2019 general elections.

Either way, the results will be read as the mood of the nation for despite the state being home to Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah, in one of the most keenly contested elections in the history of Gujarat, the ruling party has risked its key support bases — Patidars and traders — on issues of anamat (reservation) and Goods and Services Tax (GST).

For the Congress, it is a chance to cash on the fatigue factor after 22 years of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rule in the state and on the absence of a strong chief minister. The state has seen two chief ministers in a short span of three years, after Modi resigned from the post to become the Prime Minister in mid-2014.

Rise of Rahul

Besides, this is the election that saw the elevation of Rahul Gandhi, who, as his party’s chief, literally became the face of Congress in Gujarat in the middle of the elections. In fact, in a way, the polls turned out to be a Modi versus Rahul battle and as such their outcome will be linked to the performance of both the top leaders in their respective parties.

This election will also go down in history as one of the most viciously fought elections, in which allegations and sloganeering at times bordered on hyperbole, and at times, on absurdity.

To capitalise on the anger among traders against the ruling dispensation, Rahul began his campaign by naming the new tax regime imposed by the Modi-led government the ‘Gabbar Singh Tax’. As the campaign progressed, the barbs only grew shriller and ended with Modi alleging that Pakistan was meddling in Gujarat polls.

If the BJP wins in the state again for the sixth time, along with a clean sweep in Himachal Pradesh to replace the incumbent Congress leader, then Congress is in for difficult times ahead of the 2019 general elections.

Modi has already been repeatedly talking of the 2022 goals, in a manner, to impress upon the idea that he is very much there for the second term as well. The Gujarat battle of thrones was a prestige election for the PM, who ruled the state as its CM for 15 long years. 

Also, this being the first election after Rahul was anointed the Congress chief amid the perception of the party making gains in Modi’s home turf was crucial for the main Opposition, which is looking to resurrect itself from the depths it sunk into during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

If the exit poll survey is to be believed, Congress’ hope for revival in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will get a big beating while the popularity of Modi will be reinforced. 

Meanwhile, the BJP does not have a time-tested CM face in Gujarat this time. But other states, such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, go to the polls with strong faces, such as Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh, and Vasundhara Raje, who are established leaders in their respective states unlike Vijay Rupani in Gujarat.

BJP has been in power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh since 2003 while Rajasthan has been a swing state, alternating between BJP and Congress since 1993. A win in Gujarat will reinforce the invincibility of Modi, establishing that with his popularity undented, BJP can back the states ruled by it, overriding the local anti-incumbency sentiment.

Shifting loyalties

But, this time, the challenge for the BJP in Gujarat is mammoth. Patidars have been up in arms against the BJP. Also, leaders from the OBC community — Alpesh Thakor (contesting as a Congress candidate) and Dalit leader Jignesh Mewani — who emerged after the Dalit flogging incident in Una, are wholeheartedly backing the Congress.

As a counter to Hardik Patel, BJP has taken serious steps to mobilise the Other Backward Classes, besides fielding a large number of Patidar candidates to blunt the newly grown antagonism of the community, which had, for the last two decades, strongly backed the BJP. To undo the perception of Patidar bias, which could have provided the BJP a handle to consolidate OBCs that constitute 40 per cent of Gujarat’s population, Rahul joined hands with Thakor and Mevani.

Meanwhile, the Congress faced an aggressive attack from the BJP as PM Modi quickly latched on to Mani Shankar Aiyar’s ‘neech’ remark. Just like the ‘chaiwala’ comment in the-run up to the 2014 elections, this blunder by Aiyar, too, might prove costly for the Congress, as it allowed Modi to weave a web of doubt around Congress leaders, including Manmohan Singh.

Using ‘neech’ as a gambit, Modi not only managed to arrest Rahul’s attack on Gujarat’s lopsided development but he also used it to reignite the issue of corruption. A battery of BJP leaders and ministers tried to extend the damage as Ravi Shankar Prasad asked Rahul to give his view on the Ram Mandir issue and Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath mocked him for sitting in the position of offering namaz at temples.

Now, a BJP win will mean that the party has consolidated its hold over 50 per cent of the OBCs, particularly Kolis, by working on the traditional hiatus and a clash of interests between the OBCs and the influential Patidars in the region. It will also mean that while the Congress did not get the full backing of Patidars, it faced schisms in age-old KSHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Aadivasi, and Muslim) combination as well. 

Since Dalit votes are mostly concentrated in reserved seats, both the BJP and the Congress have obviously fielded Dalit candidates and the vote will depend mainly on the candidates’ profile.

As exit polls suggest, apart from retaining Gujarat, BJP is also sweeping the Congress-ruled Himachal Pradesh. If the ruling party has both states in its kitty, it would face the next round of polls in three states with confidence against a demoralised Congress.

Himachal Pradesh is a swing state, which has rarely re-elected an incumbent government and Congress’ incumbent CM Virbhadra Singh has also been battling corruption cases. BJP, which had earlier decided to go to polls without a CM face, declared its veteran Prem Kumar Dhumal as its candidate. The CM’s chair in the state has been rotating between Virbhadra Singh and Dhumal since 1993.

At the same time, if BJP wins Himachal Pradesh but loses Gujarat, it will be a huge gain for the Congress. A defeat for BJP in the den of Modi and Shah will give a leverage to the party ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections in 2018 in three states, where BJP roots are not as strong as in Gujarat. In fact, even if Congress manages to reduce BJP seats substantially, it will have a moral upper hand and the party will go tom-tomming about having ‘contained’ Modi and Shah.

Early this year, the Assembly poll results in five states saw the BJP sweeping Uttar Pradesh against a Congress-SP alliance, and the Congress winning Punjab. BJP also won Uttarakhand and formed a government in Goa as well Manipur, despite Congress having won more seats there.

Businessmen’s anger 

Riding on the anger of the trading and manufacturing community against demonetisation and GST, the Congress began its campaign on a high note from the business hub of Surat and other manufacturing centres in Gujarat.

To the surprise of BJP, the business community, despite having a strong RSS support base, was receptive to the Congress, whose vice-president Rahul held several meetings with their associations and federations.

For the first time, it seemed that the Congress was making inroads in Surat and other business districts such as Rajkot, Amreli, Vadodara, and Morbi. The Hardik Patel-led Patidar Ananmat agitation further provided the needed muscle to the Congress.

In the 2012 elections, 12 seats in Surat had gone to the BJP while the Congress managed to win just one. The Congress had seemed to be in the fighting mode in at least 6-7 seats — Varachha Road, Surat (W), Katargam, Udhna, Limbayat, Majura, and parts of Choryasi.

The ripples of agitation against demonetisation and GST also rocked most manufacturing and trading hubs, where traders, particularly those in medium and small enterprises, were angry over the lack of clarity and frequent changes in tax slabs.

The anger, however, subsided a little following the GST Council meeting on November 10, wherein nearly 200 items were removed from the highest tax slab of 28 per cent.

Subsequent relief measures, such as exempting all suppliers of goods from GST on advance payment received from the buyer, promises of relief in composition scheme, and solving procedural issues by launching national e-way Bill, by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in late November, also seemed to have mollified the trading community to some extent.

But there may be a flip-side to this late outreach for the BJP as many traders feel the much-required relief came because of the Congress, which continued to hammer the government for rate cut and simplify the complex GST procedures.

They also have the sweet memories of removal of Cenvat by the Congress government in 2004, which was imposed by the outgoing BJP government in 2003.  

Religious undercurrent  

This time, the Gujarat election campaign remained largely devoid of communal issues, mainly because of an over-cautious Congress. Its leaders, especially Rahul, deliberately maintained a safe distance from the minorities and instead indulged in temple politics and also played on the caste factor through Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor, and Jignesh Mevani to break BJP’s hegemony on Hindutva agenda.

Trying to revive the Congress’ soft Hindutva agenda, Rahul kept visiting temples, despite the BJP kicking up a row about his religious credentials when a Congress aide accidentally wrote his name in a non-Hindu register at Somnath temple. 

While the BJP’s attempt to bring the battle on its turf may not have had the desired impact as it was too sudden and too late, the party is poised to benefit from the consistent work done by its parental organisation, the RSS, its saffron offshoot VHP, and other allies such as the Swami Narayan sect and Morari Bapu.

To bring the tribes in Hindu fold, the RSS has established 1,100 Ekal Vidyalayas across south Gujarat – in Dangs, Tapi, Sagpada, Bharuch, Mahisagar, and Dahod. Its Dharma Jagran Samiti, with the help of 70 Vyas Kathakars trained in Ayodhya, who regularly conduct Sunderkaand Paath, Akhanda Ramayana Paath, Harikatha, and Ramkatha in villages, have managed to bring over 1.25 lakh tribals in to Hindu fold from Christianity.    

The Swami Narayan sect and Morari Bapu have complemented the RSS’ effort in spreading Hindutva agenda far and wide across Gujarat. About a month before the elections, nearly 1.5 lakh Ambreesh (devotees) of Swami Narayan Sect were especially asked by Chief Minister Vijay Rupani to campaign for the BJP in tribal villages. Similarly, Morari Bapu has been roped in by the RSS to spread Hindu culture in tribal areas of south Gujarat.   

According to assistant professor of Linguistics in Gujarat University, Anand Vasava, no one besides a few local Adivasi organisations and in some cases Bhilistan Tiger Sena and rebel JDU leader Chhotubhai Vasava have been able to counter the saffron spread. 

Incidentally, the Congress concentrated more on Patidars and OBCs and on issues of GST and demonetisation to win over traders, and was not in action in tribal areas that used to be its bastion. 

Keen to bring in 15 per cent Adivasis to their fold, the BJP took an early lead by launching the Adivasi Vikas Gaurav Yatra in February this year. Subsequently, it also stepped up its campaign by holding Vistarak Yojna, a programme for extensive door-to-door outreach, which is being personally supervised by BJP chief Amit Shah.

The impact of the spadework by saffron organisations on the ground may bring sweet surprises for the BJP on 27 tribal seats and in a dozen-odd other seats where the tribal vote is a crucial factor. 

Emergence of Hardik

Whatever be the poll outcome in Gujarat, what is certain is the emergence of a new Patel leader in the state, which had, in past, had stalwarts from the Patidar community, such as Chimanbhai Patel and Keshubhai Patel.

Many say that the 23-year-old Hardik, who led massive agitations for anamat (reservation) in the state, which led to police firing and subsequent killing of Patidar youths, has arrived and is here to stay. Unlike Alpesh and Jignesh, a younger Hardik does not meet the age criteria and did not contest polls. Unlike Alphesh, he also did not join the Congress, though be backed it. Huge gatherings in rallies of Hardik were quite a spectacle, which will remain etched in the memory of people.  

Though Alpesh and Jignesh formed a triumvirate with him, with the help of which the Congress’ campaign picked up, the two leaders did not have as much following as Hardik and their impact on polls also may not be so significant.

But the emergence of the young leaders from Patidar, OBC, and Dalit communities is an indication of people looking for fresh faces.