Good news! India will see normal monsoon this year, says IMD chief

In a news that would bring cheer to the Indian economy, the IMD says the country would experience normal monsoon this year. 

‘Monsoon will be 97 per cent of long period average, which is normal for the season,’ the Indian Meteorological Department said on Monday.

The date of onset of monsoon will be announced in the middle of May.

The monsoon is considered normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of long period average.

Anything less than 90 per cent of LPA is termed a 'deficient' monsoon, and 90-96 per cent of the same is considered 'below normal'.

'Very less probability' of deficient monsoon, IMD director DG K G Ramesh was quoted as saying by PTI.

Last year also, there was a normal monsoon forecast by the IMD.

As per historical data of the past 50 years, the long-period average (LPA) rainfall - between June and September - is 89cm. The IMD categorises rainfall in the 96 per cent to 104 per cent LPA range as normal while the rain immediately below that, it is considered below normal.

Despite ‘normal’ forecast, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño  conditions. 

El Niño is an abnormal condition over Equatorial Pacific Ocean, with warming over central and east Pacific Ocean. The warming results in below-par rainfall across the subcontinent and South Asia.

A good monsoon is good news for the Indian economy. The forecast of a normal monsoon will enthuse the farming sector. In 2016, good monsoon has led to record production of oilseeds, food grains and also triggered a 4.2 per cent agriculture growth.

The four-month monsoon season provides about 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall.