General elections more about coalition politics than referendum on PM Modi: Ruchir Sharma

The upcoming general elections are more about coalition politics than a referendum on the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose primary concern should be to stop the Opposition from getting united, global investor and writer Ruchir Sharma has said.

In his latest book, Democracy on the Road: A 25-Year Journey Through India , Sharma offers an insightful account of how India and and its democracy work.The book, published by Penguin Random House, is a result of his extensive travels through India where for the last two decades he has chased election campaigns across every major state, travelling the equivalent of a lap around the earth.

The book is an attempt to give people a taste of what life is like in small towns of India. Giving the readers a feel of it.This has never been done anywhere. Not even in America where books have been written on one electioncampaign or about just one leader. Rarely have books been written on an entire journey which involves 25 years, Sharma told PTI in an interview.Talking about the general elections, he said the polls will be very comparative with every single scenario in play.

This election is partly a referendum on Modi's performance, but more about coalition politics. In 2014, Modi got only 31 per cent of the vote share. The reason he got the majority was because the opposition was fragmented. This time if the opposition is more united, it will be very difficult for him, even at the same popularity, to get the same vote. So his main interest should be that the opposition does not get united. That is the game he needs to play, Sharma noted.

Noting that it would be difficult to form a grand coalition at the national level, Sharma said coalitions will be cobbled together state by state.Coalitions for me is a reflection of society. In a diverse country, you need to have coalitions basically. Coalitions are good for India. India's structure is federal and if you look at its growth story also, the best growth stories have happened at the state level which is good, he said.He said it was very unlikely that the seats will increase for the BJP even if it comes back to power, asserting that the party will have to depend more on its allies.

At this stage, the mind of most of the people in rural India is made up. The key now is where the alliances are struck. I don't think there is going to be a major change in the voter behaviour between now and the election time, Sharma said.He said the Indian elections were all about surprises and the true test of a democracy is when surprises happen and the competition is intense.
Sharma also talked about the prime minister, saying he has turned out to be very different from what he had expected him to be.

In 2014 his language was of free market economic reforms. I was expecting much more of that initially. But very quickly realised that the DNA of this country is very socialist and welfarist. It is very difficult for any leader to be a free market economic reformer in this country, he said.India is more of a continent than a country given its extraordinary diversity. Governing India at a national level is more difficult than governing it at the state level, he said.
Sharing his views on Priyanka Gandhi's plunge in politics, Sharma said it would be very difficult for her to make a big difference in Uttar Pradesh where the interests are entrenched, particularly the caste interests.

She is a charismatic politician. Over time she may build it, but 2019 seems very late for her to make a difference, he said.A contributing writer at the New York times, Sharma's earlier books include "The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World" and "Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles".