Continuing a game of political brinkmanship, Congress says the record voting average is caused by anti-incumbency while the BJP attributes the trend to a voter consolidation in its favour.
The jury is out on the verdict for the keenly-contested Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections with both the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress staking claims over a spike in poll percentages.
Continuing a game of political brinkmanship, Congress says the record voting average is caused by anti-incumbency while the BJP attributes the trend to a voter consolidation in its favour.
Punching holes in either theory is the fact that Election officials had run campaigns – motivating voters to exercise their franchise – in the months leading to elections.
A scrutiny of the record near 75% voting reveals that a 2-3 per cent increase in poll averages is not new to the state, as voter turnout was recorded at 72.07 and 69.28 per cent in 2013 and 2008 respectively.
Though votaries of the anti-incumbency argument contend that a similar spurt in poll percentages in 2003 – when a Uma Bharati-led campaign first pulled-off a largely unexpected yet spectacular victory for the BJP – had brought about the end of a decade-long rule of the Congress in the state, a closer look at the results suggests otherwise.
In 2003, likeminded secular partners of the Congress, and not anti-incumbency, were the primary architects of the poll verdict with Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and others splitting the vote and accounting for nearly 20 Assembly seats.
Unlike neighbouring Rajasthan, where dissatisfaction results in a change of guard at the Vidhan Sabha every five years, voters in Madhya Pradesh are traditionally known for investing longer mandates in a government of choice and are not swayed easily.
Attribute it to trademark populism of incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan or his unassuming demeanour, the Congress campaign to resurrect its electoral fortunes could not raise any pertinent local issues which could find pan-state resonance.
Election rhetoric of the Grand Old Party, a heady mix of anti-incumbency, 'agrarian crisis', extrapolation of issues not related to the state government and hyperbole playing out against a soft-Hindutva backdrop, seemed to fall flat in the absence of any real countering of the state government by the Opposition ranks during the last five years.
While dissatisfaction among farm communities, owing to a roll-back in welfare initiatives, cannot be denied, it does not yet seem to have acquired the dimensions to qualify as an 'agrarian crisis'.
On its part, the BJP campaign for a straight fourth term in office retained a primary focus on its welfare initiatives and leaned heavily on a groundswell and organisational muscle to counter the Congress' challenge.
Amid reports of poll percentages in rural areas peaking those in urban centres, and several claims and counter-claims failing to stand scrutiny, the Assembly Elections in Madhya Pradesh continue to remain evenly-poised. Little wonder then that the jury is still out.
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 "Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Digvijay and Kamal Nath")
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