There is a jinx attached to Karnataka. Whoever claims the throne in Bengaluru, doesn’t rule Delhi. Even though the BJP juggernaut stopped short of a clear majority at 104, it has demonstrated that the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still intact and its strategy to consolidate Hindu voters across the board has not lost steam — a crucial test ahead of 2019 general elections. After a diluted win in Gujarat, and bypoll losses in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka has offered some solace by sending the most number of MLAs from the BJP.
There is a jinx attached to Karnataka. Whoever claims the throne in Bengaluru, doesn’t rule Delhi. Even though the BJP juggernaut stopped short of a clear majority at 104, it has demonstrated that the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still intact and its strategy to consolidate Hindu voters across the board has not lost steam — a crucial test ahead of 2019 general elections. After a diluted win in Gujarat, and bypoll losses in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka has offered some solace by sending the most number of MLAs from the BJP.
More numbers for the BJP will also means that it will be able to send two MPs to the Rajya Sabha. Four Rajya Sabha members from Karnataka will be retiring in June, 2020. Even if the BJP will not be able to form the government, the results will significantly affect Tamil Nadu and Kerala after losing an important ally, the Telugu Desam Party, in Andhra Pradesh. The five southern states — Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala — and one union territory of Puducherry together sends 130 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Despite the Modi wave in 2014, the BJP won 20 seats from the region, just a seat more than its main rival Congress. Of those, 17 of them were from Karnataka alone.
In the just-concluded elections, the BJP has garnered 36.2% popular votes—the highest in any southern state. In Kerala, its vote share in 2016 was at 10.53%, up from the 6.03% in 2011. In Tamil Nadu, its vote share has remained static, varying between 2.22% to 2.84% in 2011 and 2016 respectively.
The results may have brought Congress and Janata Dal (S) together, but ahead of next year’s test, it has also made the grand old party more vulnerable to tough bargaining by other regional players, who will now demand a piece of the pie. It has additionally torn into the Congress’ arrogance that so far believed it was the central connect for any secular alternative to Modi’s BJP.
The next 16 months will also witness elections in Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. These elections would serve to be the semi-finals before the big finals in 2019. These elections will also provide an opportunity for political parties to strategise and do course-correction if required. For the Congress, one solace can be that it has ushered in the maturing of its president Rahul Gandhi ahead of the 2019 face-off. The state was also crucial to its ability to raise funds, as according to the party’s financial statement, most of the Rs. 225.36 crore it had raised in 2016-17 was from Karnataka.
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
 "Narendra Modi and Amit Shah")
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
)
)
)
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}