Assam Elections 2016: It won’t be a smooth sail for BJP; Cong & AIUDF have an edge in final phase

After a few days of rainfall, the sun is out again and the heat is on the parties, candidates and grassroot workers in Assam for the second and final phase of elections on April 11. The high-decibel campaign for the final phase came to an end on Saturday. 

Constituencies

The final phase of polling will take place in 61 constituencies - Nalbari, Mankachar, Salmara South, Dhubri, Gauripur, Golakganj, Bilasipara West, Bilasipara East, Gossaigaon, Kokrajhar West, Kokrajhar East, Sidli, Bongaigaon, Bijni, Abhayapuri North, Abhayapuri South (SC), Dudhnoi, Goalpara East, Goalpara West, Jaleswar, Sorbhog, Barpeta, Jania, Baghbar, Sarukhetri, Chenga, Bhabanipur, Patacharkuchi, Boko SC, Chaygaon, Palasbari, Hajo, Kamalpur, Rangia, Jalukbari, Dispur, Guwahati East, Guwahati West, Tamulpur, Barkhetry, Dharmapur, Barama, Chapaguri, Kalaigaon, Sipajhar, Mangaldai, Dalgaon, Jagiroad, Marigaon, Laharighat, Raha, Dhing, Batadroba, Rupohihat, Nagaon, Barhampur, Samaguri, Kaliabor, Jamunamukh, Hojai and Lumding. 

Of the 61 constituencies, the most key ones are Kaliabor, Samaguri, Nagaon, Barhampur, Raha, Laharighat, Jagiroad, Dharmapur, Barkhetry, Guwahati West, Guwahati East, Dispur, Jalukbari, Chaygaon, Bongaigaon, Kokrajhar East, Kokrajhar West, Dhubri and Salmara South. Close fights among candidates are expected in these constituencies. 

Candidates in the fray

In the final phase, a total of 525 candidates are in the fray – Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fielded 35 candidates, Congress 57, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) 19, Bodo People’s Front (BPF) 10, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) 47 among others. Two hundred seventeen (217) candidates are also contesting the polls this time as Independents. 

Among the prominent candidates are Cabinet ministers Rakibul Hussain, Chandan Sarkar and Nazrul Islam from the Congress, former two-time chief minister and veteran AGP leader Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, AIUDF chief and Dhubri MP Badruddin Ajmal and former Congress minister Himanta Biswa Sarma who is now in the BJP.

Other prominent candidates include former BPF ministers in the Congress government Chandan Brahma, Pramila Rani Brahma and Rihon Daimari, former AGP ministers Ramendra Narayan Kalita and Kamala Kalita and their former colleagues Atul Bora and Chandra Mohan Patowary who joined the BJP. 

Poll mood & beyond

Although the poll mood in lower and central Assam is not different from the mood prevalent in upper Assam districts and the Barak Valley during the first phase of elections on April 4, with majority of people craving for parivartan, there is still an underlying fear in the minds of all major parties of any last minute shocks. 

Poll observers here opine that though the high voting percentage of 82.20 this year compared to 70.82 in 2011 is an indication of a large number of people wanting change, the lower and central Assam electorate still remains divided over a vote for parivartan or continuity: i.e the AGP-BJP-BPF combine or the Congress. 

Interestingly, for the Congress, parivartan means transformation of the party’s work culture into a more efficient one so that people’s faith in the grand old party increases. On the other hand, for the BJP, parivartan is all about throwing the Congress out of power, placing the state on the growth path and protecting the Assamese people’s jati, mati aaru bheti (identity, land and base). With these three things in mind, the top Central and state BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, campaigned across the state and wooed the voters. The Congress, on the other hand, stressed on the National Register of Citizens (NRC) update work the party has undertaken and tried to convince people about the lurking ‘dark days’ if the BJP comes to power. 

Nilim Aakash Kashyap, a Nalbari-based journalist and author, feels that the wave is definitely in BJP’s favour and the ruling Congress is facing anti-incumbency. But the latter's chances could not be ruled out in lower and central Assam districts in the final phase of polling, he says. “The sea of people at Narendra Modi’s as well as Himanta Biswa Sarma’s rallies does not necessarily mean that all those people are BJP supporters. Several of the lower Assam constituencies are dominated by the minority community who are traditionally Congress and AIUDF supporters,” says Kashyap. 

What the records say

This time, the BJP is making all efforts to win at least 84 seats as part of its ‘Mission 84’, which was announced by the saffron party when Congress heavyweight and former state minister Himanta Biswa Sarma joined them. The Congress announced that it would retain its earlier position or even get a majority in this Assembly election. In the 2011 Assembly polls, the Congress won 24 seats, AIUDF- 17, BPF- 9, AGP- 5, BJP - 3, Independents - 2 and Trinamool Congress- 1 in these 61 constituencies. 

Prospects of a few prominent candidates in some key constituencies 

Three-time MLA from Samaguri and minister in Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi’s cabinet Rakibul Hussain is facing a tough challenge from BJP this time. Samaguri in central Assam’s Nagaon district is a Congress citadel. Hussain has been representing Samaguri since 2001. Even the AIUDF has not been able to get a foothold among Muslims here, who comprise around 80 percent of the total electorate of Samaguri. Even former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, who contested from Samaguri in the 2011 Assembly polls, was routed by Hussain who is pitted against BJP’s Jitu Goswami in the polls on Monday. 

Hojai constituency in Nagaon district will witness another interesting contest this time among Shiladitya Dev of the BJP, Dhaniram Thaosen of the AIUDF and Ardhendu Kumar Dey of the Congress. Poll analysts say that Thaosen has an edge over both the BJP and Congress candidates in terms of winning the elections. In this Muslim-dominated town, AIUDF chief and perfume king Badaruddin Ajmal and his family continue to earn respect from residents of Hojai. Tales of Ajmal’s philanthropic works have achieved the status of myths here. The AIUDF has a great support base in Hojai. 

The Kokrajhar East constituency (ST), considered to be the most prestigious one in BTAD, has been represented by prominent Bodo leader and former Cabinet minister Pramila Rani Brahma of the BPF since 1991 without a break. Altogether, six candidates, including UPP’s Pratibha Brahma, are in fray in the constituency. Interestingly, both Pramila and Pratibha were teachers before stepping into politics. This time, Pratibha could give Pramila a strong fight given the former’s growing popularity in the area. In the 2011 Assembly elections, Pramila defeated her rival K Basumatary of the Bodoland People’s Progressive Front (BPPF) by a huge margin. 

The Barhampur constituency in Nagaon district is likely to witness another interesting battle this time among the BJP-AGP-BPF combine candidate and former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, Congress’s Suresh Bora and AIUDF’s Shariful Islam Siddique. In terms of poll prospects, Mahanta has an edge over the rest of the opponents this time. He has been representing the seat for five consecutive terms since 1991. This poll will decide whether Mahanta will be given another chance by Barhampur residents or whether Bora will have the last laugh. 

An interesting poll battle also awaits in the high profile Salmara South Assembly constituency in Dhubri district where AIUDF chief Badaruddin Ajmal is pitted against Siraj Hussain of the BJP and Wazed Ali Choudhury of the Congress. Once a bastion of the Congress, Salmara South was wrested by Ajmal in 2006 and retained by his son Abdur Rahman Ajmal. Wazed Ali Choudhury has been fielded by the ruling party for the fifth time. Both Ajmal and Choudhury consider each other archrivals. But this time luck could be in anybody’s favour. The socio-economic condition of people of this constituency has remained unchanged over the years. Neither the Congress nor the AIUDF could do anything constructive to protect the area from flood and erosion, illegal infiltration and a host of other problems. 

The Dharmapur LAC will also witness a prestige fight between Congress candidate and former agriculture minister Nilamani Sen Deka with BJP candidate and former AGP minister Chandra Mohan Patowary. This time Deka has an edge over Patowary. It was alleged that Patowary visits the constituency only during election time. 

The prestigious Jalukbari constituency in Guwahati is a bastion of the state’s political giant and BJP candidate Himanta Biswa Sarma who won the last three Assembly polls on Congress tickets. This time too, Sarma is most likely to win the seat. Other candidates, including Congress’s Niren Deka, will be of no match to Sarma’s charisma and influence. Regarding development works and other facilities in the constituency, voters are more or less satisfied. 

The Gauhati East Assembly constituency is another key constituency in the final phase of elections in the State. It’s an urban constituency where voters are very well aware of the political situation. Political observers say the fight for the seat this time would be mainly between first timer and Congress nominee Bobbeeta Sharma and BJP candidate and former State president of the party Siddhartha Bhattacharya. The contest is likely to be very close between these two candidates. The seat was an AGP stronghold in the eighties and nineties. The people of the constituency have been facing problems like water logging and scarcity of drinking water.