The gradual erosion in its Dalit vote base and its shift to parties like the AIMIM has rattled RPI leaders.
With the Republican Party of India (RPI) in retreat, parties like the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) are trying to woo Dalit voters for a Dalit-Muslim socio-political combination. This merging of factors has led to the once-potent RPI, which has now splintered into factions, staring at an impending existential crisis with its core Dalit vote-base gradually slipping away.
The AIMIM emerged as the second-largest party in the Aurangabad municipal corporation, managing to reach out beyond its core Muslim vote base with five of its 26 newly elected corporators being Dalits. Leaders of the AIMIM, which has two MLAs in Maharashtra, say they are eager to expand this rainbow coalition across Maharashtra.
The gradual erosion in its Dalit vote base and its shift to parties like the AIMIM has rattled RPI leaders, who have begun invoking the emotional and cliched slogan of 'RPI Aikiya' (unification of RPI factions), which cynics describe as a mirage, considering the conflicts between its numerous leaders.
Muslims make up for 10.6% of Maharashtra's population, with Dalits at 14%. Buddhist Dalits (erstwhile Mahars who converted to Buddhism with Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar) comprise a majority among Dalits. What makes the situation worse for the RPI is its inability to reach out to a social base beyond its basic Buddhist Dalit catchment, unlike Ambedkar who had tried to expand to sections beyond his traditional constituency.
A Dalit leader said this shift in the community's support to the AIMIM in Aurangabad had occurred because of RPI faction leaders appropriating all positions of power, leaving just spoils for their supporters. This led to the middle and lower-rungs looking for better opportunities for upward political mobility even through hardline outfits like the AIMIM.
"If we are unable to break this logjam, we will have a tough time in the BMC elections due in 2017. This will also hurt the Shiv Sena and BJP," noted RPI (A) leader Avinash Mahatekar. "Dalits are angry because they have no participation in power and this was reflected in the voting," he stated, admitting that youth voters were moving away from the RPI to parties like the MNS and now, the AIMIM. The RPI (A) led by Rajya Sabha MP and BJP ally Ramdas Athavale performed poorly in Aurangabad, losing all six seats.
"Dalits who have shifted to the AIMIM have done this for power and not because they have sympathies with it," noted Shabbir Ansari of the influential All India Muslim OBC Organisation, adding that history was replete with many such short-lived experiments. Dalit politics is bankrupt, there is no future for it," observed Surendra Jondhale, professor, department of civics and politics, University of Mumbai, adding that Dalit leaders had failed to create their own political space.
"This (alliance with the AIMIM) is temporary and not long-term," said Jondhale, adding that the RPI leaders had failed to expand into other social sections. The AIMIM, which stormed on to Maharashtra's political scene by winning 11 seats in the 2012 Nanded civic polls, had then allied with the Dalit-dominated Samvidhan party. It also fielded Dalits in the assembly polls including former minister Gangadhar Gade.
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