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A dialogue with JC: Gujarat will be the barometer of changing mood of the nation

As a departure from the usual form of a dialogue, DNA Editor Jagdeesh Chandra reads the minds of Gujarat voters and analyses the outcome of this election in a candid analysis.

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Q: Is the mood of the country really changing? Will Rahul Gandhi ever become alternative to Brand Narendra Modi?

A: Not really... we can’t say this only on the basis of defeats in Gurdaspur and Chitrakoot...Yes the popularity graph of Modi has certainly dipped ...crowd have thinned in election rallies but he is still the tallest leader in the country...as far as Rahul Gandhi becoming an alternative...it doesn’t look like he will become one till 2019...however, it is also the fact that politics is a game of possibilities...if Rahul is destined to become PM then it is possible...but it doesn’t look like happening in 2019. 

Q: Will all anti-BJP parties be able to form a coalition in Gujarat, the way they did in Bihar or will unity of opposition fall like pack of cards?

A: The equation in Bihar was different. There all genuine and credible parties had joined hands...it’s altogether different in Gujarat....JDU is not in a position, NCP can’t bargain ...there is straight fight between Congress and BJP. 

Q: Will BJP be able to realise its claims of winning 150 seats? Is anti-incumbency factor working there?

A: Anti-incumbency factor is certainly working...BJP will perform well... but crossing the figure of 117 seats will be difficult... dream of 150 seats won’t be fulfilled.

Q: Is Modi contesting election on the agenda of progress or are issues like Gujarati pride and Hindu-Muslim factor significant? 

A: Hardik Patel, demonetisation, GST are the factors...vote percentage will reduce...it will depend upon how much voting is done...BJP will not be able to cross vote share of 47%.   

Seven out of 10 people say that BJP will form the government...but politics is a game of possibilities...there are maximum chances that BJP forms the government. 
Modi has made progress an issue...official agenda is progress...unofficially Gujarati pride and Hindu-Muslim factors are also big issues...there is no guarantee that BJP will form government. 

Q: Will BJP again raise the issue of security of Hindu voters in this election? What will be the impact of video tape related to this issue?

A: The achievement of BJP government is law and order...security of Hindu voters is the issue created by BJP...BJP has been encashing this issue... this time video has been run...in the video a girl is seen walking in front of mosque... no one knows, who has released this video... security of Hindu voters is being raised through this video.

Q: After all why Rahul Gandhi is frequenting temples in Gujarat? is Congress adopting the agenda of soft Hindutva? 

A: Rahul is not able to understand what he should do... his advisers asked him to visit temples...in Shiva temple he said Shivji is my guide...Congress is trudging on soft Hindutva agenda.

Q: Why Congress is not raising the issue of minorities and Gujarat riots? Is there any anger among Muslim voters on this issue? 

A: This is strategic move of Congress...not raising issues of Muslims...not picking up agenda of riots...last time the statement of Sonia Gandhi on ‘merchant of deaths’ cost Congress dearly...minorities want Modi’s defeat...there is unwritten understanding between Congress and minorities.

Q: Will the issue of Vikas Pagal Ho Gaya hai (Progress has gone mad), which has gone viral on social media harm BJP or will it become yet another matter of joke among voters?   

A: This is just a joke...it’s strange that if time is not favourable even small things become big issues...this has made fun out of BJP’s agenda of progress...Modi has countered it with Yes I am Vikas...BJP has suffered a little bit from this.

Q: Will Vijay Rupani remain contender for chief minister’s post from BJP or are there any dark horses in the field?

A: It seems Vijay Rupani is the contender...there is no possibility of dark horse...he is close to Shah and Modi...he is also lucky for BJP... he is proving to be a good CM...he is attached to organisation...it is possible that Vijay becomes the next CM.  

However, Gujarat election is being fought on the faces of Modi-Shah...there is no need to announce any name.  

Q: What will be the role of Anandi Ben in this election? How much vulnerable is BJP from infighting and rebel candidates?

A: Anandi Ben is a disciplined soldier...she is a staunch Modi supporter...Modi has always kept her side...Modi has always given her place on the stage...PM had tweeted in favour of Anandi Ben on her birthday...infighting prevails in every party...there have bee some cases in Godhra and Patan...those who have not been given tickets will not be able to cause any damage.   

Q: Will the Sex CD of Hardik Patel help the cause of BJP? What would be the impact of young voters of Gujarat?

A: CD has damaged the image of Hardilk...one more CD has been created by editing...Youth have an open mind... one-third of population is youth...there is little damage to Hardik...how much BJP has gained, this we will come to know only when votes will be counted. 

Q: Will Hardik Patel, who keeps on changing his stand on the issue of reservation be able to stand by Congress till the end? How much stable is the alliance of Hardik and Rahul? 

A: This alliance is till elections...if a miracle happens and Congress forms the government then there could be disputes on many issues. Cabinet, reservation and court cases on Hardik would be the issues...alliance is temporary...this is a poll alliance.     

Q: How Rahul became more popular than Modi on social media? Whether it is any kind of management or expression of public anger?

A: Whether it is managed by Congress or it is an expression of anger...difficult to say...Congress must have managed to an extent...social media can’t win elections...politics is a 24X7 job, it can’t be performed over tweet and retweet...elections cannot be contested on social media...whether Rahul can do it or not, only results will say. 

Q: How much the Jumla of  ‘Gabbar Singh Tax’ getting popular in electioneering in Gujarat? Is Rahul Gandhi really changing?  

A: Rahul has definitely changed...he doesn’t read out speech...there is consistency. Gabbar Singh Tax slogan has become a big rage...it is a popular Jumla of Rahul as a satire. 

Q: Is it the fact that Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have donned the roles of  CM and state party chief respectively in Gujarat?  

A: In Gujarat, the local leadership is not vast. That’s why it looks like that they have assume roles of chief minister and state party chief. Local team is giving good support. This is a satire. 

Q: Why Congress has made an issue of BJP’s campaign on ‘Pappu Rahul Gandhi’? Does the party really get benefited out of this?

A: Congress has made it an issue without a ado. How do these words matter...Congress approached election commission...got the Pappu word removed...there was no need..how do words matter...public is sensible.

Q: Are cloth merchants, jewellers and real estate businessmen of Rajkot, Ahmedabad and Surat still unhappy despite the GST relaxations given by Narendra Modi-Arun Jaitley-Amit Shah?      

A: There was anger among business community in Gujarat over demonetisation and GST...people have even said, “Hamari Bhool, kamal ka Phool”...there is no limit to appeasement if you go on doing...there has been some damage control after the relaxation...but how much, it can’t be said...or now appeasement after anger, how much is it translated into votes, is to be seen.

Q: Why the road show of Yogi Adityanath flopped in Valsad? 

A: It was a big tragedy with Yogi. He is considered to be the third face...when he was doing roadshow no one was there...there was disappointment... why it happened...there are so many reasons...the management of show was not well. Yogi is not relevant for Gujarat or is it the erosion of craze for BJP..

Q: What is the Rajasthan connection in Gujarat election?

A: Rajasthan connection of Gujarat election is interesting...BJP in-charge of Gujarat is from Rajasthan...similarly in-charge of Congress, Ashok Gehlot is also from Rajasthan. In-charge of both the parties are from Rajasthan. Strategists are from Rajasthan.

Q: What is the role of RSS in Gujarat? 

A: RSS is playing an active role in Gujarat...RSS is with Modi-Shah...it is a silver lining in dark clouds...RSS is known to deliver at the end.  

Q:Will  Congress  get a major boost in Gujarat elections if Rahul Gandhi is made the president? 

A: It is a big thing for Congress workers in Gujarat that Rahul Gandhi has dedicated himself to Gujarat elections...it will boost the morale of workers.  

Q: How do you look at Amit Shah and Rahul Gandhi as party presidents? 

A: There is no comparison between Shah and Rahul...Shah has faced criminal case. Hence he knows every dirty trick of politics. Rahul can’t do all this. Shah has a better run rate...Rahul may have the strategy with him but there is no execution. There is no monitoring system with Rahul...Shah has got money and sources...Rahul doesn’t have. If Congress loses, the only weakness of the party will be that it created atmosphere but could not succeed in bringing voters to the booth. 

Q: What are the challenges before Rahul Gandhi as Congress president? 

A: The foremost challenge before Rahul Gandhi is three elections in 2018 (MP, Chhatisgarh and Karnataka) and 2019 Lok Sabha elections...second challenge is to take senior leaders in sync and third challenge would be to source money and resources.    

Q: Will there will be a transfer of political power after Rahul becomes the president or Sonia will  have the remote control?   

A:  After the annexation of Rahul Gandhi on December 5, it is to be seen in next few months whether political power is really transferred to Rahul... 80 per cent power will be transferred.. rest 20% senior leaders will be heard... ultimate remote will be in the hands of Sonia.  

Q: Will it be the end of Priyanka chapter in Congress after Rahul becomes the president?

A: After the annexation of Rahul, Priyanka chapter will be closed for at least 2-3 years. There were many theories going on ... the issue of leadership in the family has ended now...Rahul will only decide the policy and functioning of Congress. 

Q: On the issue of Rahul becoming the president of Congress, Yogi Adityanath has said that this will make BJP realise the dream of Congress free India in a much easier way? Do you also think so?  

A: BJP was not serious about the slogan of Congress free India. Yogi had said in a taunting way. Yogi himself is not serious. This is an impossible situation. This is a fantasy. This is just an imagination. 

Q:  Why was there  so much discussion in media over the luncheon of Rahul with Tejasvi?

A: This is a world of social media. People tweeted about their lunch in Khan market...made it an issue...Rahul has returned the favour that Lalu family had done to Gandhi family. Lalu was the only one who sided with Sonia Gandhi  on the issue of her being a foreign national. This was just a return of favour.

Q: At the end, one question about Himachal Pradesh also. Is BJP forming government in Shimla? 

A: The story of Shimla is interesting...BJP will make government comfortably...history has it...Congress and BJP make governments alternatively...Once Congress...other time BJP...once Dhumal...other time Virbhadra. Shah made Nadda understand Dhumal has greater chance of winning. The rise of anti-incumbency factor is due to the achievement of Virbhadra. The government has spoken about giving jobs to 8 lakh people but was able to provide employment to only 75,000 people. Remaining 7.75 lakh people are left disgruntled. BJP will form the government there. It was viral on social media that Congress will get 38 seats...it doesn’t look like...but there can be miracle...if BJP loses then it can be concluded that the mood is changing in the country.

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