As per the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) demographics dividend report 2017, Delhi is among the few North Indian states where below replacement fertility has been achieved ie, the total fertility rate (TFR) has gone down to as low as 1.7. The global replacement rate is 2.1.
This decrease will lead to the state seeing lower number of births as compared to 2011, while the working-age proportion will continue to rise, thus boosting growth.
The report shows that with the fertility rate at 1.7, Delhi will see 2,45,000 annual births in 2021 as compared to the 2,94,000 in 2011. Also, the projected trends for dependency ratio reveal that while 51.9 per cent of the population is dependent, only 44.5 per cent people will be in the dependent category in 2021. According to the report, the working population -- that is, aged between 15 and 59 years -- will rise from 11,055,000 in 2011 to 12,830,000 in 2021. Low dependency rate means increased productivity and economic growth.
The projected working age ratio will rise from 192.68 in 2011 to 224.72 in 2021.
"The main reason for the below replacement fertility rate is that people are getting aware, especially women, who are now making conscious decisions and learning about their reproductive rights. They know and have the freedom to make a choice. UNFPA is reaching young women in both urban and rural areas to provide contraceptive information to help them make sound reproductive choices," said Venkatesh Srinivasan, Assistant Representative, UNFPA.
For India as a whole, the TFR is projected to fall to from its current level at 2.3 to 2.1 by 2021, and to 1.7 by 2061. In 2011, the TFR was higher at 2.5 in rural areas than in urban areas where it was 1.8. In 2013, 11 out of 20 large states reported a replacement fertility rate of 2.1 or less. Seventeen out of 20 large states recorded an urban TFR of 2.1 or less. Bihar, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh were the only three states with an urban TFR higher than the replacement rate of 2.1.
Rural TFR had fallen below the replacement rate of 2.1 in ten states - Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal.
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