While in 2007 the BJP dominated the assembly polls by bagging three of the five constituencies in rural Ahmedabad district and only one seat each bagged by Congress and independent candidate, the chess board seems a bit tight this round.
Will anti-incumbency, delimitation of assembly constituencies, caste equations and dissidents among BJP favour their rivals this polls, is a million dollar question that perhaps the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) top brass will not want to mull right now.
However, Congress is pinning its hopes on these factors for a boost. While in 2007 the party dominated the assembly elections by bagging three out of five constituencies in rural parts of Ahmedabad district and only one seat each was bagged by Congress and independent candidate, the chess board seems a bit tight this round.
In the meantime, Congress seems to going strong in four constituencies of Ahmedabad rural which is going to the elections on the first phase of polls on December 13. It seems that the BJP is facing anti-incumbency factor in Viramgam and Sanand constituencies with the repetition of its sitting MLAs — Pragji Patel and Kama Rathod. As a result, Kanbha Gohel from Sanand and Kunvarji Thakor from Viramgam revolted and joined arch rivals, the Congress.
This might put BJP on the back-foot in these constituencies. Moreover, resentment among Moto-Patel Samaj in Viramgam and Karadia Rajput community in Sanand may damage prospects of BJP giving Congress an edge in these seats.
BJP’s veteran leader Bhupendrasinh Chudasma is contesting against Congress’ young candidate from Karadiya Rajput community Pradhyumansinh Chavda in Dholka constituency. It is believed that Karadia Rajput and Koli-Patel communities have reached a mutual agreement of supporting Koli-Patel candidate, Kamshi Koli-Patel on the Sanand seat and Chavda on the Dholka seat, thus giving Congress an advantage here.
Dhandhuka seat has become safer for Koli-Patel candidate as around 24 community dominated villages of Dholera region have been added in the constituency after delimitation. BJP seems to have an edge over Congress as it has fielded Koli-Patel community candidate Lalji Mer. It should be noted in 2007, Ranchhod Mer, a Koli-Patel candidate had defeated BJP’s Bharat Pandya. Congress has fielded retired DySP MN Shah.
Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) has fielded candidates in Dholka, Sanand and Dhandhuka, but may not make a major difference in the battle ground. In Sanand, GPP’s Patel candidate might attract Patel votes, while Maldhari community candidate might help BJP in Dhandhuka.
Considering all aspects, it seems Congress has a slight edge over BJP in Ahmedabad rural provided no major incident take place that can change equations overnight.
DHOLKA
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BJP: Bhupendrasinh Chudasma
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Congress: Pradhyumsinh Chavda
Dholka is likely to witness close encounter between a veteran politician and his greenhorn rival. BJP’s Bhupendrasinh Chudasma is contesting from Dholka for the seventh time, where he won on the seat thrice and lost four times. Congress’s Pradyumansinh Chavda wasn’t even born when his competition started his political career! Chavda’s grandfather-in-law and BJP rebel Kanbha Gohel might prove a turning point in the battle. He is also banking on support of Koli Patels.
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