Post-Osama episode, Pakistan is in a catch-22 situation: Diplomats

Pakistan foreign secretary Salman Bashir’s statement on Thursday that sovereignty cannot be violated and that the international community should adhere to rules and conventions evoked a bemused response from Indian diplomats and foreign policy wonks. They feel the really difficult thing for the Pakistan army, ISI and the civilian government will be to explain the Osama episode to their own people.

“They are left with no space. There is no cohesiveness in what they saying,” was the wry observation of G Parthasarathy, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan. He said more than the response of Pakistan, it is the debate that will be taken up in the US Congress over the Osama operation that would be interesting as well as important. He said the US will use a carrot and stick policy towards Pakistan more than ever before.

Former Indian representative at the UN Disarmament Conference in Geneva Arundhati Ghose argued, “The sovereignty of a country is accepted by the UN Charter. But the sovereignty is not absolute. There is a limitation.”

She pointed out that there has already been violation of Pakistan sovereignty because of the continuous American drone attacks in Pakistan’s tribal areas for a long time now. The United States has said it has acted in self-defense. The Pakistan army cannot say that it was in the know, nor can it deny that it was kept in the dark regarding the killing of Osama bin Laden at Abbottabad on Sunday. They cannot say either of the things, said Ghose.

“There was of course a violation of sovereignty, but there is not much they can do about it,” commented former foreign secretary MK Rasgotra. He felt that the army and the ISI will be cautious as far as the US goes. As to whether they will curb the activities of the terror groups after this, he feels that it is hard to tell.

“Someone in Washington has already said that there will be more Abbottabads if this kind of support to terror outfits continues,” he said.

Commodore Yday Bhaskar, secretary National Maritime Foundation, is of the view that what Basheer or other Pakistan officials are saying is only for public consumption.

There is a greater concern over the internal repercussions of the killing of Osama. Bhaskar fear that the government, the army and ISI could whip up popular emotions but nothing more than that.

“Pakistan is on a drip, economically and militarily. It is dependent on US aid.” He however said China could possibly throw a lifeline to Pakistan if the US were to turn cold to Islamabad. “The Chinese have an axe to grind,” he said.

“The army could do something horrid because to does not want to lose its hold over the establishment in the country and it fears the erosion of its credibility in the eyes of the common people of the country,” she said. The other possibility is: Now that the security establishment in Pakistan at the moment is on a back foot, the civilian government and civil society could exert greater control over the armed forces.