Mystery deepens over China's leader-in-waiting

Mystery surrounding the whereabouts of the man poised to become China's next leader deepened yesterday (Tuesday), as reports emerged that he may have suffered a heart attack.

Xi Jinping, who is expected to be unveiled as China's next president in October, has not been seen in public for 10 days, leading to a flurry of online speculation about his health.

The Communist party has so far refused to explain Mr Xi's disappearance and a foreign ministry spokesman again declined to comment. "I hope you can ask more serious questions," Hong Lei told reporters in Beijing after being asked if Mr Xi was even still alive.

Initial rumours suggested that Mr Xi had hurt his back swimming or playing football. However, the New York Times cited a well-connected political analyst, who claimed Mr Xi might have suffered a "mild heart attack".

One source told reporters he had injured his back during his "daily swim". But another anonymous source appeared to contradict that version, saying: "He's unwell, but it's not a big problem." One senior journalist from Beijing admitted that he was flummoxed by Mr Xi's sudden and unexpected disappearance.

"We are all waiting for an announcement," the journalist said, adding that he had heard rumours that a "major news [bulletin]" on state-controlled television was imminent.

Chinese internet censors attempted to stem the flow of online rumours that had the country's hugely popular social media networks buzzing. A series of related search terms on social media, including "back injury" and "vice president", were blocked, along with Mr Xi's name.

But bloggers soon found their way around the censors, using terms such as "crown prince" to escape detection.

"The rumours about the crown prince are flying everywhere," wrote one in reference to Mr Xi. "The Congress is approaching. Come out, crown prince, to calm people down."

Questions over the whereabouts of Mr Xi, 59, began last Wednesday after authorities cancelled the vice-president's meeting with Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, citing "unexpected scheduling reasons". Last Friday, Mr Xi was not listed as having attended a high-level meeting of the central military commission, of which he is the vice-chairman.

On Monday, with Mr Xi still nowhere to be seen, those whispers grew into widespread speculation. A meeting with Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the Danish prime minister, which had been announced to the media last Wednesday, also appeared to have been axed. The Chinese foreign ministry later denied that the meeting had ever been planned.

Despite the rumours, some of China's top officials continued to travel outside Beijing, which would seem unlikely if the leadership was consumed with crisis.

Premier Wen Jiabao gave a speech in the northern port city of Tianjin, and his likely successor, Li Keqiang, the vice premier, was visiting a north-western region, according to state media reports.

Analysts have dismissed the most sensational online claims, posted on a US website and subsequently retracted, that Mr Xi had suffered an assassination attempt as part of a power struggle.

"If that did happen or if the party leadership believed that such an attempt was made I think you would have Beijing crawling with police and security forces," said Steve Tsang, a China expert from the University of Nottingham. "Nobody has seen [that happen] and we are talking about a government that habitually overreacts. So I really don't buy that."

Prof Tsang said the most likely explanation was a medical condition "that makes it impossible to parade him on TV". Hu Xingdou, a professor from the Beijing Institute of Technology who blogs about political and social issues, said Mr Xi's absence was "quite normal".

"He might have some health problems. He might have fallen ill due to over-work," he said. But Prof Hu criticised a lack of government transparency in handling the case. "Rumours die when you open up," he said. Mr Xi's withdrawal from public view comes at a crucial time for Chinese politics, with the once-in-a-decade power transition widely expected to take place before the end of October with the opening of the 18th Communist Party Congress.

It also follows the messy fallout from the Neil Heywood murder scandal, which toppled Bo Xilai, once one of China's most powerful men.