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Factbox: Post-World Cup political risks in South Africa

Many of the issues feed demands for greater government spending, a route that risks stoking inflation and widening budget deficits at a time of international concern about public debt. The rand would be the most likely victim of any loss of confidence.

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As World Cup euphoria fades, tensions in South Africa are likely to resurface, including strike threats by trade unions, anger towards migrant workers and rifts in the ruling African National Congress (ANC).

Other problems such as a strained power grid and anger among poor blacks about shoddy public services are also sure to bubble up once again, especially as local politicians prepare for council elections in the first half of next year.

Many of the issues feed demands for greater government spending, a route that risks stoking inflation and widening budget deficits at a time of international concern about public debt. The rand  would be the most likely victim of any loss of confidence.

Migrants
The World Cup generated a surge in African "brotherly love" as local fans rallied behind other teams from the continent. In reality, however, this soccer-fuelled pan-Africanism is unlikely to last long beyond the final whistle.

More than 16 years after the end of apartheid, millions of South African blacks continue to live in squalid shanty towns and unemployment running at 25% after last year's recession has only increased their anger and frustration.

The resentment is stoked by the presence of as many as 5 million African migrants in South Africa -- some legal, many more illegal -- competing with local people for houses and jobs.

That volatile mix exploded in 2008 in a wave of violence in which 62 people died and 100,000 were made homeless across the country. The rand fell as the political frailties of the "Rainbow Nation" were laid bare.

Rumours of more anti-migrant violence after the World Cup are rife, although the government is trying to play down the concerns.

Isolated incidents of xenophobia are inevitable, although it was hard to see the authorities sitting idly by as they snowball across the country, as happened in 2008.

Watch out for:
- Documented attacks on foreigners

- Speed and size of response from security forces


Strikes
The annual mid-year "strike season" had added spice this year, with unions using the threat of stoppages during the World Cup to press demands for wage increases well above inflation.

Action at state utility Eskom that could have hit power supplies during the World Cup was averted after workers received a settlement roughly twice the rate of inflation, which was 4.6% in May.

Workers at state logistics group Transnet won a slightly higher increase at the end of May after a three-week rail and ports strike that hit exports of coal, cars and fruit and cost the economy $1 billion in lost production and sales. Buoyed by their success, unions may use such tactics again to get their way.

The confrontational rhetoric and tactics also pick at cracks in the relationship between the ANC and its formal governmental allies -- the trade union federation COSATU and the small yet influential Communist Party.

They also suggest a lack of willingness among unions to accept the need for reform of the economy and labour market to try to tackle 25% unemployment, a factor behind the almost daily public service protests in black townships.

What to watch:
- More strikes, especially if accompanied in newspapers by pictures of stone-throwing youths and burning tyres, are likely to increase concerns about economic competitiveness and could undermine the rand.

- Signs of unions throwing their weight around before an ANC conference in September, at which they are likely to push for a switch in economic policy in favour of workers and the poor.

Electricity
Electricity supply worries continue to haunt businesses and households, and Eskom is finding it tough to raise money to build new power stations.

Fears of a repeat of a power crisis in early 2008 that brought the grid to the brink of collapse and forced mines and smelters to shut for days will deter investment.

Eskom has warned of another power crunch between 2011 and 2013 unless more stations are built. Parts of Johannesburg have suffered blackouts in recent weeks although these have been blamed on technical problems.

What to watch:
- More blackouts will hurt businesses and output. If caused by system overload, they are likely to deter foreign investment.

- Efforts to raise money to build new plants. If the government fails to get the cash, firms are unlikely to want to build smelters or other factories with big power demand.

- The 2008 blackouts hit the rand and stock market, with mining stocks such as Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti taking a knock.

ANC In-Fighting
Julius Malema, leader of the ANC's youth wing, has been uncharacteristically quiet since being slapped on the wrist by ANC elders in May for stepping out of line on Zimbabwe and persistently singing racial songs, including one called "Kill the Boer", which touches on killing whites.

Few expect the silence to last.

The relatively lenient punishment meted out for defying President Jacob Zuma suggests Malema and his views on nationalisation of mines and Zimbabwean-style seizure of white-owned farms has the support of some ANC big-hitters.

As the ANC's policy-setting conference in September nears, Malema is certain to resume his comments, to the irritation of pro-business ANC factions and worrying investors who still wonder how deep his influence really runs.

What to watch:
- Signs of Malema's thoughts on the economy and nationalisation gaining support from more mainstream ANC figures.
- Progress of a state investigation into allegations that Malema used his political connections to secure government contracts for one of his businesses. If impropriety is proved, Malema could be banished to the political wilderness.

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