The army brass, senior diplomats and top officials have been warning of a steep rise in infiltration this summer, citing the sudden flow of terrorists from Pakistan in March.
Scary assessments, warning of a steep rise in infiltration, may be misplaced. The army brass, senior diplomats and top officials have been warning of a steep rise in infiltration this summer, citing the sudden flow of terrorists from Pakistan in March. The army beefed up deployment along the LoC, and on Monday defence minister AK Antony flew to the LoC to take stock of the situation.
The surge in infiltration in March, which rattled the establishment, may be an exception rather than the norm for this summer. The few dozen terrorists who entered in March may not be battle hardened terrorists but greenhorns sent in to Kashmir by a desperate Hizbul Mujahideen, the local face of militancy in Kashmir, trying to find relevance.
Increasingly, sources are beginning to admit that the infiltration by a couple of huge groups, running into a few dozen terrorists, may have been an exception. There seems to be no organised Pakistan strategy to carry on such infiltration, at least from firm trends available through April.
The authorities are now beginning to admit that not one terrorist entered Kashmir in April, typically a peak month for infiltration.
“We were expecting a huge surge, but that is not the case,” an intelligence source said. Not one agency involved in Kashmir — state police, IB, army, Research and Analysis Wing and Border Security Force — differs on the zero-infiltration-in-April theory.
Detailed analysis of the March infiltration throws up a different reason now, and not a Taliban scare. It was believed that seasoned terrorists, probably Taliban members, had come in to wreak havoc.
But from the interrogation of Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province resident Saqib Moinullah, 25, nabbed by the army, and other evidence, the government is beginning to conclude that those who came in March were not seasoned terrorists. They were recruited by a desperate Hizbul Mujahideen to ensure that this election and summer are not peaceful. “For six years we have been holding peaceful assembly and parliamentary elections,” a senior security establishment official pointed out.
Hizbul’s local cadres are no more motivated, so they are making a final effort to make themselves relevant in Kashmir. “Or else it could have an adverse impact on the Hizbul leadership in Pakistan,” a senior intelligence official said.
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