The Congress said it would win at least 45 of the 124 seats, while the BJP claimed it was poised to win 50.
After the high-decibel and often-vitriolic campaign that characterised the first phase of elections, it was time for reflection and hard-nosed analysis by the number crunchers and poll managers of some of the main players. Publicly, all sides claimed to have done well. The Congress said it would win at least 45 of the 124 seats, while the BJP claimed it was poised to win 50.
Congress poll managers were closeted at the party’s war room on Gurdwara Rakabganj Road, trying to make sense of reports coming in from field managers. Of particular concern to the party was its performance in Andhra Pradesh (AP) and Kerala.
In AP, the party is facing a formidable challenge from the Left-TRS-TDP grand alliance. Phone lines buzzed between Delhi and Hyderabad as Ahmad Patel and Jairam Ramesh checked and crossed-checked assessments by CM YSR Reddy and the state leadership.
In Kerala, the party is banking on a good showing to shore up its chances in Delhi. “We will win at least 45 seats in the first round,” a senior leader said.
The BJP had conducted its own exit polls and claimed 50 seats, 15 more than it had in 2004 from areas that went to polls on Thursday. “Based on feedback from the ground, we can safely say we will win 50 or more seats,” party spokesman Siddharth Nath Singh said.
Senior BJP leaders said the improvement was largely in areas where it had fared miserably the last time. The gains this time are seen in Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand and eastern UP. The party also hopes to retain around the same number of seats, 10 of 11, in Chhattisgarh.
The mood at the CPI(M) headquarters was somber. Bastion Kerala appeared to be slipping out of the party’s grip due to a mix of periodic anti-incumbency and several self-goals. A senior politburo member who traveled extensively throughout the state said the party and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) were expecting only around 8 of the 21 seats in the state.
“We are hoping against hope. We have to say the LDF’s tally in Kerala is not likely to cross double digits,” a senior CPI(M) leader said.
“There are serious problems with the Left in the state, and the results are going to reflect them. Apart from the feud between chief minister VS Achuthanandan and senior leader Pinarayi Viajayan, and the fallout of the Lavalin case, the LDF support to Abdul Nazar Madani of the People’s Democratic Party in Ponnani is working against us,” he said.
“The Nair community is one of the main bases of support for the Left, and it is upset that Madani, who was one of the accused in the Coimbatore blast case has been propped up by the LDF,” a source said.
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