It’s a lose-lose situation for Lalu

Bihar, which has always played a key role in deciding the balance of power in parliament with 40 seats, appears set to deliver a verdict in favour of NDA partners JD(U) and BJP.

In an election devoid of a major emotive issue, regional and local factors will dominate. Rather than “Advani for PM”, it is the Nitish Kumar government’s “development-oriented” image, contrasted with that of the earlier Lalu Prasad-led RJD regime, that would stand the NDA in good stead.

The JD(U) has kept the BJP and its Hindutva agenda in check and tried to keep all sections, including Muslims, happy. Nitish has made a major dent in the RJD vote bank with reservation to backward Muslims. Along with other welfare schemes such as scholarships for Muslim students and loans for income-generating projects, this has resulted in a wholesale shift of the minority to the JD(U). The BJP brings in upper caste votes.

In these circumstances, RJD chief Lalu Prasad appears a clear loser. With a significant section of Muslims drifting away to the JD(U) and the Congress, his support base is now largely confined to Yadavs.

Lalu has tried to shore up this base by allying with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP, which has strong support among the most-backward castes, Dalits and a section of Muslims, but this could benefit Paswan more than Lalu.

Congress, with its organisation in disarray, is trying to get back into the picture, but may not win more seats than the three it won the last time.