N-deal is now on fast track

NEW DELHI: Having won the trust vote, the India-US nuclear deal is now on the fast track. Prime minister Manmohan Singh’s government is going all out to initiate a high-voltage campaign to ensure that nothing is left to chance at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG).

India needs a safeguards agreement with the IAEA and a waiver from the NSG before it can join the world of nuclear commerce.

“This government has gone out on a limb to save this deal, and will do everything it can to ensure that India’s nuclear isolation is ended. The stakes are too high for the government to lose out in either the IAEA or the NSG,’’ a  senior official who did not wish to be identified said.

The government was waiting for the results of the trust vote before sending its emissaries to world capitals to lobby for an NSG waiver. India’s former foreign secretary and the prime minister’s special envoy for the nuclear deal, Shyam Saran, was all set to leave for Dublin late on Tuesday night. Ireland, a member of the IAEA board of governors and the 45-strong NSG, isn’t  particularly enthusiastic about a  waiver for India.  

Minister of state for external affairs Anand Sharma will travel to South Africa, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Nigeria, countries which are members of the IAEA board and the NSG. Prithviraj Chauhan, junior minister in the prime minister’s office, has been entrusted with the job of getting China’s nod. Beijing is playing its cards close to the chest and it will be Chauhan’s endeavour to convince it. China is a member both of the IAEA and the NSG.

After the IAEA board approves the deal on August 1, it will be up to the US to call a meeting of the NSG to consider a clean waiver for India. Even if there is a vote in the IAEA, officials are confident that India’s agreement will go through. Washington is working on a draft exemption after the IAEA vote.

The NSG, officials agree, will be relatively tougher. About a dozen countries with strong domestic non-proliferation lobbies may want certain concessions from India. But India is in no position to offer any, considering the lack of domestic political consensus on the agreement. The NSG is expected to take up India’s case in August.

Ireland, like many other Western democracies, is a staunch believer in the non-proliferation regime. These countries believe that decades of hard work to build a water-tight case for non-proliferation have been dislodged by the Bush administration’s efforts to make an exception for India, which has refused to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT).

Saran will try to convince the Irish that despite not signing the NPT, India’s non-proliferation record is impeccable. Bringing India on board the non-proliferation regime will strengthen and not weaken the cause. Saran will also try to answer queries on the India-specific draft agreement recently signed with the IAEA and any other questions the Irish may have.

From Dublin, Saran will travel to Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Brazil as well as to New Zealand and Australia over the next few days. Another trusted Indian diplomat, Chinmaya Gharekhan, will swing through Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Malta to make sure that these countries understand India’s compulsions and support India’s hope for a clean waiver at the NSG. Saudi Arabia and Morocco are both members of the IAEA board.

Finally, foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon and India’s ambassador to the US Ronen Sen will focus on getting the deal okayed by the US Congress after the IAEA and NSG hurdles are cleared.