If the Congress has reasons to fear a mid-term poll as the leader of the ruling coalition at the Centre, the CPI(M) has similar apprehensions
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: If the Congress has reasons to fear a mid-term poll as the leader of the ruling coalition at the Centre, the CPI(M) has similar apprehensions while approaching voters in Kerala. Rising prices, shortage of foodgrains and 30 minutes of daily loadshedding imposed from Friday…the anti-incumbency wave could not get any stronger for the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front which romped home with a record 18 out of 20 seats in the previous general elections. But then, 2004 was a special year, a welcome aberration, for the LDF.
The ruling front, which has consistently dominated the electoral scene with its landslide victories, may not find it the best time for a mid-term poll. Chief minister VS Achuthanandan, who rode a ‘wave of rising expectations’ two years ago, is on a back foot with his crusade against the mafia going nowhere.
The Left may get a point or two at the street corner meetings with its ideological stand on the N-deal. But voting patterns suggest the common man is more concerned with rough roads and costly commodities. And there aren’t many Karats at the grassroots to drive home the point.
CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat, busy checking prime minister Manmohan Singh’s eagerness to sign the 123 Agreement, however, no longer has to mediate in the feud between the chief minister and the party state secretary. After the congress at Coimbatore in February, both factions have put up a picture of unity. Though far from the monolith it once was, the CPI(M) is gearing up for the polls as a unified party after almost a decade.
But the CPI(M) is witnessing a gradual weaning away of religious minorities which helped it conquer the unlikeliest fortresses in 2004. If the Catholic Church has revived the crusade against the ‘materialists’, Muslim groups too have joined the bandwagon now. The latest issue to spark street wars in front of the secretariat is a class-seven social science textbook, which the religious satraps and their political serfs say is “anti-religion”.
Education minister MA Baby, who was trying to regulate the professional education sector and reform primary education, has agreed to have a relook at the book, which could be accused of being secular, at the most. The opposition Congress is trying hard to blow up the non-issue. It may succeed in dissociating the communal groups from the CPI(M), but would hardly make any impression on a voter. The Left’s indirect showdown with the Bush administration on the 123 nuclear Agreement is enough to woo the Muslims.
What makes the psephologist’s job tough is the delimitation of constituencies coming to force after the last assembly polls. In such a scenario, a cadre-based party like the CPI(M), whose machinery is second only to the Election Commission in keeping tab on the voters of every booth, knows best how to utilise the changed equations.
s_don@dnaindia.net
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