BJP win aided by Cong vote banks

Sandeep Bhardwaj & Jumana Shah

45% tribals, 23.6% Muslims voted BJP in Gujarat: Study

The BJP’s landslide victory in Gujarat’s recently concluded assembly elections, which has been characterised as ‘defying all logic’, does not seem resistant to reasoned analysis after all.

The CNN-IBN/Indian Express/Divya Bhaskar post-poll survey of caste-wise voting patterns, carried out by Delhi’s Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), clearly demonstrates that the Congress was deserted by its traditional vote banks. Further, Keshubhai Patel’s rebel group from the BJP had claimed that it could persuade the influential Patels – who customarily support the BJP – to vote for the Congress. But the survey shows that the Patels followed their electoral custom. 

The survey indicates that tribal and Muslim votes, thought to be safe Congress assets, were channelled in large volumes to other parties, independent candidates, and even to the BJP.

The survey was carried out after the polling in Gujarat and involved 8,933 respondents in 60 constituencies. According to the CSDS data, 45.3% of tribespeople across the state voted for the BJP – a substantial number, considering that the Congress was confident of riding to victory on tribal votes.

A typical case of calculations going wrong for the Congress is its loss of the ST reserved Dang Vansda seat for the first time. A BJP candidate has secured that seat.

The survey shows that some 23.6% of Muslims voted for the BJP and 8% for other parties or independent candidates. This implies that the Congress lost nearly 32% of Muslim votes. Congress leaders believe that the minorities were taken for granted during the elections and may have felt alienated when the party deployed soft Hindutva to woo the Patels.

As for the Patels, 57.1% of Leuva Patels and an overwhelming 82.3% of Kadva Patels voted for the BJP. The rebels, Keshubhai Patel, Gordhan Zadaphiya and Suresh Mehta, collectively effected only a marginal change in the Leuva vote pattern.

“The Congress completely lost track of its loyal voter base. Patels have been with the BJP since the ‘80s and the new generation of Patels does not so much as even recognise Patel leaders,” said a senior Congress political analyst. “It was always a tall order to sway the votes of this largely urbanised business community, but the rebel leaders were overly confident and the Congress blindly sailed along.”

He said that when the Congress made it known that it was assiduously courting the Patels, the non-Patel and opposing electorates got together and voted against the party. In a similar pattern, 31.9% of Dalits voted for the BJP, leaving only 53.1% votes for the Congress.

Another evidence of the Congress’s flagging influence was the relatively low turnout of Muslim voters – from 59.86% in 2002 to 51.7% in 2007. “Muslims felt disillusioned with the Congress because it was cozying up to hardline BJP MLAs, fielding Patel candidates and peddling soft Hindutva,” said an activist who works for a minority community.  “Several neighborhoods in rural as well as urban areas decided not to vote at all. This was clearly a loss for the Congress.”

JS Bandookwala, a social activist, said, “The low turnout is a reflection of the degree of hope in the community. There is no doubt that had there been a higher turnout of Muslims, there would have been more votes in the ballot box against Modi.”