Is Pakistani nuclear arsenal vulnerable to theft?

ISLAMABAD: Apprehensions about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are on the rise in the West due to the weakening control of an embattled Musharraf.

The West fears that the Pakistani nuclear arsenal may be vulnerable to theft, illicit transfer, or accidental use if the command and control structure of its army, headed by the Chief of Army Staff cum President, falters.

However, government sources in Islamabad say after the security leakages associated with Dr AQ Khan, Pakistan’s military leadership introduced security practices by establishing a nuclear command and control system.

The nuclear institutions come under the National Command Authority, a joint military-civilian structure that includes Pakistan’s top generals and civilian leadership set up in February 2002.

The operational security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal remains the responsibility of Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai, the three-star general who heads the NCA’s Strategic Plans Division, and is answerable to General Musharraf.

Military sources say the nuclear weapons and fissile material are heavily guarded as the SPD devotes over 8,000 personnel, mostly undercover, to protect them.

However, there are those within the establishment who point out that little is known about the precise safety procedures adopted to secure the nukes. Yet statements made by senior Pakistani civilian and military officials from time to time suggest that the country’s nuclear arsenal probably remains unconstituted.

The term unconstituted essentially means that in times of peace, the nuclear arms are stored with their fissile cores separated from the non-nuclear components so that they cannot be fired at a moment’s notice or without the cooperation of the responsible officials.

Government circles say the unconstituted nature of the arsenal not only minimises the risks of nukes being used inadvertently or a command and control failure, but it forecloses the possibility of the seizure of an assembled weapon or cache of weapons by a rogue military unit.

They add that even if a military commander were to seize all the components of a nuclear warhead, they would require considerable technical assistance from other units within the military and the civilian nuclear establishment to reconstitute them.

According to government sources, at a doctrinal level, the Pakistani military has internalised the fundamental lesson of the nuclear revolution that nuclear weapons best serve a political purpose and are more useful for their symbolic value in deterring enemies than for achieving any militarily useful objective on the battlefield.

Hence, despite apprehensions being expressed about the safety of the country’s nuclear arsenal amidst political uncertainty in Pakistan, it is generally believed that its nuclear weapons would remain the most protected national assets during the current unrest as there are no signs of a breakdown in command and control in the Pakistan Army.