Pollsters are having a tough time in Tamil Nadu. They are hedging their bets on who will win the assembly polls to be held on May 8.
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CHENNAI: Pollsters are having a tough time in Tamil Nadu. They are hedging their bets on who will win the assembly polls to be held on May 8.
While the polls may be too close to call, experts are forecasting that if the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) wins, the state will have its first ever coalition government.
The first open indication to this effect came from DPA’s chief ministerial candidate and DMK president M Karunanidhi.
The veteran leader’s oblique statement at a book release function last has set the political circles abuzz. The book, The Authoritarian Rule in Tamil Nadu, has been written by Congress leader A Gopanna.
“Irrespective of whether it is going to be a coalition government or not, my only motive is to oust the anti-people Jayalalithaa government,” the veteran DMK leader told the gathering.
Political experts who have been following the moves of Karunanidhi know the Dravidian political maestro is not prone to Freudian slips.
Last year, Karunanidhi had flexed his muscles at the Congress leadership when Union minister EVKS Elangovan floated the idea of a coalition government in Tamil Nadu.
By dangling the coalition carrot, Karunanidhi has acknowledged that the fight is getting tougher and that he cannot afford to lose.
Making as he did the statement at a Congress leader’s function, it is also construed as a directive to the Congress to put an end to the infighting and start working for the coalition.
A cursory look at the seat share of the DPA constituents reveals a strong case for a coalition government. The DMK is contesting only 130 of the 234 seats.
This means only a clean sweep by the DPA can assure the DMK an absolute majority of 118 seats. This, as the race continues to be a neck-and-neck one, looks unlikely.
The Congress, which is contesting 48 seats and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (31), besides the CPI (M) (13) and the CPI (10) can legitimately claim a share in the power pie if the DPA manages to make it.
“We did not float the idea earlier because it could raise the question of stability. In private, Kalaignar (Karunanidhi) has always maintained that he would cross the bridge when he comes to it,” a senior DMK leader told DNA. The Congress leaders are happy. “Adhering to alliance dharma, we were not demanding a coalition government. But when the DMK is part of the UPA government at the Centre, why can’t we be part of a DMK-led government here,” says a Tamil Nadu Congress Committee office bearer.
Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa is now likely to project the stability factor in her campaigns. With her AIADMK, contesting in 182 seats, she faces no pressure for a coalition government from its allies. But for Karunanidhi this election will prove crucial in determining the future direction for DMK.
Coalition Politics
234
assembly seats up for grabs
130
seats contested by DMK
48
seats contested by Congress
31
seats contested by PMK
23
seats contested by Communist parties
May 11
will seal the fate of the coalition idea
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