The India Meteorological Department’s long-range forecast for the 2011 south-west monsoon season (June to September) has stated that rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal.
The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) long-range forecast for the 2011 south-west monsoon season (June to September) has stated that rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal.
This was disclosed in a press statement issued by the IMD, Pune on Tuesday evening. It said there was a very low probability for season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of long period average - LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA). “Quantitatively, the monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of +-5%,” the statement said.
Coincidentally, as reported by DNA (April 17), meteorologists from across South Asia, in a consensus statement issued on the concluding day of the three-day South Asian Climate Outlook Forum held in Pune (April 13-15), had said the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia for the 2011 season would most likely be within the normal range.
IMD’s director for weather forecasting, Medha Khole, told DNA on Tuesday that the IMD would update the forecast in June 2011 as part of the second stage forecast. “Along with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July-August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued,” Khole said.
She said the forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole from August to September will be issued in July and that for September in August.
In New Delhi, IMD director general Ajit Tyagi told media persons the country would receive 98% of the average rainfall, allaying concerns of a ‘cool summer’ leading to a weak monsoon. Tyagi said, “We found that out of the five global indicators that have a bearing on the south-west monsoon, two were favourable and three were neutral.” However,
Tyagi said the monsoons were likely to be weaker than last year.
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