Sultan of reverse swing

The BJP's imperious triumph in the by-polls to seven Assembly seats in Gujarat has spawned several fundamental questions: Was this a Congress's debacle? Does the outcome reflect the BJP's hard work? Did Narendra Modi's stratagems deliver the victory? DNA explores Modi's mysterious hold on the psyche of Gujarat voters and what makes him tick elections after elections: 

Hindutva wave in Danta
Since the 2002 Assembly elections, the BJP leaders have been restrained in projecting Hindutva. In fact, it was not invoked in the run-up to the parliamentary elections. However, in Danta, a Hinduva wave certainly made the BJP's fortunes surge. The Congress fielded Noor Mohammad Umatiya in Danta as its candidate, where the Ambaji temple is located. According to the constitution of the Ambaji Temple Trust, the Danta MLA becomes the ex-officio trustee of the temple, which is a faith-defining symbol for most people in the state. BJP did not miss the opportunity and leaflets against Umatiya were circulated and a word-of-mouth campaign stoked sentiments against him. As a result, the Congress lost a seat that was its stronghold since 1998.

No personal campaigning
As the BJP's star campaigner in the Lok Sabha polls, chief minister Narendra Modi had undertaken a whirlwind of canvassing tours across the country. But though the by-polls were a matter of prestige for him, he had decided not to campaign personally. Instead, he deployed loyal lieutenants to oversee poll preparations. A pair of senior functionaries, a minister and a member of the party organisation, monitored each assembly segment. The candidates and local leaders, however, were always mindful of portraying Modi as the 'development king' during campaigning.

Caste factor and local issues
The by-polls were not fought on any common contentions; each party championed a cause or concern that could draw votes for its candidate. Thus, caste, the fielding of 'outsiders' as candidates, and development were dominant themes for canvassing. In Sami and Chotila, where the Congress lost, its candidates were projected as outsiders by the BJP. The saffron party leveraged the fact that Dinesh Thakore, the Congress's Sami candidate, lived in Ahmedabad and Manoj Jhinjharia, the Chotila candidate, was a Rajkot resident. The caste factor and insinuations of dynastic politics benefited the BJP in Jasdan where Kunvarji Bavalia had fielded his daughter. The Koli votes were divided as a BJP minister and 'Bhai', Purushottam Solanki, campaigned in favor of Bhupat Dabhi, an independent Koli candidate who contested against Bhavna Bavalia.

Co-op sector helped the BJP
The BJP is taking a keen interest in all political battlegrounds, irrespective of the sector. The party collaborated with co-operative leaders who have strong influence over rural areas. This trend was not evident in earlier assembly or parliamentary elections. But of late, dairy and bank co-operatives, cotton federations, and agriculture market committees are being tapped as resources to garner votes.

Ishrat Jahan case
Although the state government drew censure from across India following leaking of Justice Tamang report on the Ishrat encounter case, its effect on local politics was only positive for Modi and the BJP. For average Modi voter, the Ishrat encounter report came at a time when Modi was on the backfoot, under pressure from BJP's own politics. They saw the need to rally behind their leader at such a time. Also the message out of the controversy was very clear - a terrorist was shot down and now Modi was held repsonsible for it. The multitudes can’t sympathise with someone who is reprimanding Modi or Gujarat police for shooting down a terrorist - symbolised as a patriotic act, a heroic deed. 

Government schemes worked
The Modi government based many of its campaign themes on schemes such as the development of Narmada canals, Sujalam Sufalam, and Jyotirgram. So much so, sources in the Congress claimed four days before the polling day, Anandiben Patel had visited Danta and allowed the Narmada water to flow freely! The SRP commandoes placed round the year to stop farmers from using the water were asked to stand down 15 days ago and farmers were allowed to draw water. That did the trick, claims Congress.

Congress Turncoats
Drawing a leaf from Congress' style of politics, Modi has been welcoming politicians switching sides from Congress, even as Congress alleged such people were under tremendous pressure and various means were used to force them to switch sides. Bharat Boghara in Jasdan and Bhavsinh Rathore in Sami Harij were the BJP's bold experiments with Congress turncoats, which worked very well for the party. Boghara, a Patel by caste, was Rajkot MP Kunvarji Bavaliya's election in-charge for the parliamentary polls.

Selecting Bavaliya's daughter, Bhavna, for the seat not only gave a ripe and well-groomed candidate to the BJP, but also spread much ill-will among the Koli and Patel votebanks developed by the Congress during the Lok Sabha elections. "Koli voters were disappointed with Kunvarjibhai because they felt they need not remain loyal to the Congress when the party humours such dynastic politics. This affected even the Chotila seat," a source said. "Manoj Jhinjariya is a political greenhorn, his only qualification is being the son of a late Independent MLA, Popatbhai."

Congress mistakes
Candidate selection, miscalculation of caste combinations, and the high command's cavalier attitude to the elections are believed to be the major blunders committed by the Congress. Other grave errors of judgment: fielding candidates like CJ Chavda, a Gandhinagar worker who contested in Dehgam, and Dinesh Thakore, a Thaltej resident who ran for the Sami-Harij seat against a seasoned contender like Rathore.

"Moreover, so pleased was the Congress with the Lok Sabha results, that the MPs started thinking they had won, and not the party," a senior Congress source in Saurashtra said. "The high command heeded only their representations. After that, the MPs, who were given the responsibility, started taking the elections lightly. All, except Vitthal Radadia, showed overconfidence."

The source said that although numerous public meetings were held, no clear strategy or agenda had been formulated. "The government's glaring failures were not effectively brought out during campaign," the source said.