Dahej, a coastal town in Bharuch district, falls in the industrial corridor, and has also been earmarked for a Special Economic Zone fuelled by port-based development.
If sea levels are actually rising because of increasing global temperatures, the Dahej area on the Gujarat coast is among the sites that run the risk of submergence. Dahej and the creeks in Kutch are among the eight vulnerable sites in the country being studied by the Space Applications Center (SAC), Ahmedabad. Findings of the ongoing study indicate that if there is a 0.5 metre rise in sea level, Dahej may one day be lost to the sea.
However, scientists at SAC, Ahmedabad, are at pains to point out that this conclusion is highly conjectural. It is not yet known with certainty whether sea levels along India’s coast are actually rising or, if they are, the rise is sufficient to pose a threat to Dahej and other coastal areas.
To put the whole thing in perspective, a recent report by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) has predicted that sea levels could rise by 1.4 metres.
However, group director, marine and earth science, SAC, Ahmedabad, Dr Ajai, who is spearheading the ongoing study, refused to comment on the SCAR report, saying that each site is different from the others. He said that if — and it is a big ‘if’ — the sea level rises even by 0.5 metre, Dahej may be threatened with submergence.
This is significant because Dahej, a coastal town in Bharuch district, falls in the industrial corridor, and has also been earmarked for a Special Economic Zone fuelled by port-based development.
Former SAC scientist, Dr Shailesh Nayak, who is now secretary with the Union ministry of earth sciences, had done a detailed study in 1998. In a paper titled, ‘Estimation of Impact of Sea Level Rise along Gujarat Coast’, he had projected that areas near Porbandar and Madhavpur-Ghed could turn into lagoons and the coastal areas north of Bhavnagar, around Khambhat and Hazira, could be inundated. An elaborate follow-up study with data of the last 18 years is now underway at SAC to determine the latest changes. Dr Ajai says that only 20% of the water in rivers comes from melting glaciers. The remaining is the run-off of the rainwater that collects in catchments.
“So while temperatures may be increasing, the rainfall is also increasing in some parts,” he said. “Studies are also underway to determine if there is a definite rise in sea-surface temperatures, as that would impact the coral reefs. The impact of a rise in sea-level for each area can be determined only by studying its contour.”
It is interesting that according to the national rainfall pattern data submitted earlier this month in the Rajya Sabha by the Union MoS for Earth Sciences, Prithviraj Chavan, an analysis of rainfall data for the 10-year period from 2000-2009 indicates a 7% increasing trend in the Saurashtra-Kutch region.
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