Anand Agricultural University's monsoon panchang says there will be 30% more rainfall than average, Kutch and Junagadh will see deficit in rainfall.
For parched souls longing for the showers to commence in early June, the wait just got a little longer. The Anand Agricultural University (AAU), that has been preparing a monsoon calendar to predict rainfall in Gujarat, says the monsoon will set in only towards the end of June, 15 days later than usual.
However, the good news is that the AAU has also forecast 30% more than the average rainfall of 850 millimetres in the state. Vice-chancellor of AAU, MC Varshneya feels Gujarat will have a better monsoon this year.
"Only two districts, Kutch and Junagadh, will see a deficit in rainfall. All other districts will have more than average rainfall," he says, adding that pre-monsoon showers may start early but the monsoon will properly set in only in the last week of June. Varshneya also feels that the monsoon will continue till September-October.
He has some tips for farmers in Gujarat. He says, looking at the late onset of monsoon, farmers should postpone nursery and transplanting of crops. "It is going to be a good season for crops like paddy. But farmers should not start sowing immediately after the rain starts. Normally, they start transplanting the crop seeds in May. This year, they should delay the procedure to June," said Varshneya.
AAU has divided Gujarat into eight zones according to
its agri-climatic situations. The monsoon panchang is prepared, based on simple concepts so that farmers can easily understand. It has days and dates mentioned like any other calendar we use, but it also includes details about the positions of the specific nakshatras that each day will follow.
According to Varshneya, the positions of various nakshatras impact rainfall just like the sun or the moon have their effect. So the prediction made by the AAU is a result of the study of positions of 27 nakshatras and nine 'grahas' on any particular day.
Four colours have been used to categorise the probable rainfall in eight zones. For instance, white colour has been used to predict no rainfall, yellow for less, green for normal and blue for excessive rainfall. The use of colours for any particular date will predict the possibility of rainfall on that day. Moreover, the calendar also includes guidelines like the use of pesticides, better technology, seeds and fertilisers for seasonal crops, that farmers should follow throughout the year for better results.
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