Islamabad embassy cables reveal Pakistan paranoia about India

The third day of the release of classified US diplomatic communication revealed the Pakistani establishment's paranoia about India and a blunt assessment of India's role in the region by western diplomats in the region.

The cables reveal strongly held beliefs in the Pakistani and even western circles that India and Afghanistan were fomenting terrorism in South Pakistan and expose a strong fear of Indian military attack on Pakistan after the Mumbai attacks of 2008. Through the eyes of the American officials, the dispatches also claim that President Zardari's "no first use" policy on Nuclear weapons is not taken seriously by the Pakistani Army.

“We have letters instructing who to give what weapons to whom,” Musharraf told John Negroponte, the visiting American deputy secretary of state in late 2007, buttressing his claim that India and Afghanistan is fomenting terrorism in Baluchistan. India and Afghanistan were providing weapons, training and funding for Baloch extremists through Brahamdagh Bugti and Baloch Marri, two Baloch nationalists living in Kabul. "If India wants to continue, let’s see what our options will be,” Musharraf added for effect.

The letters also show Afghan president Hamid Karzai trying to disabuse US assistant secretary secretary for South Asia, Richard Boucher of the Pakistani notion. "Karzai had said that the Bugtis were not terrorists and represented nobility in Afghanistan," another cable, this time from the Kabul embassy, says. "The real terrorists were Bin Laden and Mullah Omar. Afghanistan needs a sign that Pakistan will stop supporting these terrorists," Karzai told Boucher.

"Boucher asked Karzai if he could assure Pakistan that the Bugtis were not supporting armed struggle and that India was not involved. Karzai said “yes”, though he doubted Pakistan would accpet his assurances," the cable went on. "Pakistan would continue to think India is involved. There is a lot of misinformation out there," Karzai told Boucher. Karzai explained that Bugti had once tried to call Karzai but he had refused for the sake of good relations with Pakistan. "Now he cannot forgive himself for refusing," the cable noted him as saying.

Indeed, it was not just the Pakistani's who suspected India of fomenting trouble in Baluchistan. Western diplomats at the Pakistani capital too seemed convinced of Indian involvement, just as they were sure of Pakistani involvement in the Mumbai attacks. A cable issued when the Mumbai terror attacks were still going on, betrayed western fears of an immediate punitive and or even military response from India.

Cautioning that the American embassy did not share the fears, the American embassy shared British anxieties over an impending attack by India. "British high commission officials in Islamabad told [Americans] that Her Majesty's Government has evidence the attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which was planning more attacks. The UK officials noted that.. the Government of India.. will feel the need to respond with force rather than diplomacy. They fear a response could include, at a minimum, increase Government of India covert activities in Balochistan or even an aerial bombardment of Lashkar-e-Toiba camps in Azad Jammu and Kashmir," the cable, dated November 28, 2008, said.

Other cables exposed Pakistan's growing fear of India's military might, including one describing the visit of Senator John Kerry earlier this year. "He [Zardari] claimed India had increased its military spending 30 percent this year and described this as a direct threat to Pakistan," the cable pointed out. "When Kerry pointed out the Chinese threat to India, Zardari responded that Indian tanks cannot operate in the Chinese border region and could only be intended for an attack on Pakistan," it added. "Capability creates a fear," the cable quoted Zardari as saying.