India likely to face a bloody summer

India could witness a series of heightened terrorist activities in the coming months as Pakistan steps up efforts to push more trained terrorists into Kashmir and other parts of the country. The infiltration is a part of Pakistan’s strategy to whip up the Kashmir issue and divert attention from its domestic problems. Well-placed sources in the home ministry said Pakistan also wants to force India to break the ceasefire between the two countries.

There was a 30% increase in infiltration along the International Border (IB) and the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir in 2009 compared to 2008. There were 342 recorded incidents of infiltration in 2008 and 499 incidents in the subsequent year, according to sources in the central intelligence agencies.

The Multi Agency Centre, a conglomerate of over a dozen intelligence agencies, which had recently reviewed the infiltration activities on the Indo-Pak border in 2009, had cautioned the Centre about the possibility of a more “violent” summer ahead. It is based on the fact that terrorists are taking about six months to settle down and would gear up by summer to launch attacks.

The Indian government is caught in a catch-22 situation. Opening a front against Pakistan by retaliating to its infiltration and firing incidents would not be in tune with the overall situation prevailing in the South Asian region. At the same time, it would be hard-pressed to contend with the public opinion building against Pakistan’s machinations.